An escalation of the war in Ukraine would be a catastrophe for the Ukrainian people, but the consequences of the war would spread far beyond Ukraine and could change European security rules, explains author Majda Ruge, noting that it would weaken global security institutions that are already fragile.
The situation in BiH is a good example
”Despite a worrying tendency to attack the neighboring country, Russia remains a central part of the United Nations (UN)system, especially in the Security Council. A comprehensive war in Europe would leave the UN largely paralyzed – as it was during much of the Cold War. However, this paralysis does not mean the end of peacekeeping. The crisis will inevitably create an imperative for Western nations to work on Russia on issues in which it has used its membership in the Security Council to thwart peacebuilding and stabilization efforts, according to an analysis with the published name “Kremlin Plans in Bosnia and Ukraine”.
Namely, the situation in BiH is a good example of this, the author pointed out, drawing a parallel between the situation with Ukraine and current developments in the Western Balkans.
It was reminded that the UN Security Council plans to review the situation in BiH in November this year, when member states will decide on the annual extension of the EUFOR Althea mission, in charge of maintaining peace and security in BiH:
Completion of the mission
”Russia is vetoing the decision to deploy 600 EUFOR troops stationed in BiH – a small and non-threatening mission consisting mostly of Hungarian, Austrian, and Turkish troops, which lacks staff and equipment to protect the country’s borders. As Russia is aware of EUFOR’s weaknesses, it is not interested in ending the mission. Instead, it is using its veto over EUFOR’s mandate to make concessions that weaken U.S. and European political initiatives in BiH. These initiatives are designed to support the country’s constitutional reforms and give it the necessary foreign policy action to progress towards NATO and the European Union (EU) membership, the analysis said.
The most severe existential threat
”Russia’s behavior towards BiH speaks of its ambitions and tactics, as well as its desire to reduce the influence of the West and undermine Western political projects outside the former Soviet space. Russia is working to achieve these goals in several arenas. And Russia’s ambition to create a new international security architecture – one that marginalizes the U.S. and NATO – extends to regions where the U.S. and its European allies have traditionally taken the lead in security. In all these regions, Western countries have invested a lot of time, money, and political capital in peacebuilding and democratic reform. In BiH, as in Ukraine, Russia’s goal is to keep the country away from NATO, and NATO forces outside the country, and to weaken the U.S. politically and militarily. The Kremlin’s approach to this is simple: close the Western executive presence in the form of the Office of the High Representative (OHR), within which the U.S.which still appoints a Deputy High Representative; prevent constitutional reform that can only happen with the U.S. support, and ensure that the central government is incapable of achieving the foreign policy action it needs to make decisions on NATO and EU membership, ” it was emphasized in the text.
NATO’s mandate
The author concluded: ”Let’s be clear: Russia does not want NATO to replace EUFOR. But the West will be in a stronger negotiating position if NATO makes a credible commitment to do so unless Moscow gives in.
E.Dz.
Source: Avaz
