German political scientist Alexander Rhotert wrote an op-ed for a German newspaper about what he sees as the strategy of Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
He noted that a few weeks ago, Vucic gave a speech at the United Nations (UN) General Assembly, which Rhotert believes revealed Vucic’s views on history. Among these views is Vucic’s claim that the dissolution of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia was not accidental but the result of the “determined cooperation of Western intelligence services.”
“Vucic is using the old Serbian narrative that the ‘West,’ ‘Genscher,’ the CIA, and/or the Vatican destroyed Yugoslavia. None of this can be historically proven. What is interesting is not only Vucic’s interpretation of history but also his evident sadness over the loss of the Soviet Union,” Rhotert wrote.
He recalled that Putin shared the same sorrow and stated that Vucic, whom he described as a powerful, autocratic president, revealed in his statement how deeply he hates the European Union (EU) and NATO by not even mentioning them while showing how much he likes Russia. Rhotert reminded readers that Serbia is a candidate for EU membership.
He also addressed Vucic’s actions concerning the UN resolution on the genocide in Srebrenica.
“The day before, he decorated the Russian ambassador to the UN (Vasily Nebenzya) with the Order of Merit of Serbia, as Russia, along with Belarus, China, North Korea, and others, voted against the German-Rwandan resolution declaring July 11th as a day of remembrance for the victims of the genocide in Srebrenica. It is worth noting that neither Serbia nor the Serbian people are mentioned in this resolution,” Rhotert emphasized.
He also mentioned that Vucic and French President Emmanuel Macron signed an agreement for the delivery of 12 French Rafale fighter jets.
“Vucic’s Deputy Prime Minister, Aleksandar Vulin, a known admirer of Stalin, later traveled to Vladivostok, where he conveyed Vucic’s warmest greetings to Putin: ‘As you know, Serbia is not only a strategic partner of Russia but also an ally. That is why Serbia is under great pressure. However, Serbia will never join NATO or adopt sanctions against Russia. Serbia has never been, nor will it ever be, part of the anti-Russian hysteria’,” Rhotert stated.
According to Rhotert, Putin observed Vulin’s deference with satisfaction, knowing that he could rely on Belgrade.
“Vulin’s message symbolizes yet another failure of the EU’s reconciliation policy. Instead of acknowledging this, EU spokesperson Peter Stano even defended Serbia (…) Stano’s statement shows that the EU has learned nothing from the 1990s debacle following Serbian aggression. There is no necessary crisis prevention by restraining Belgrade. Brussels is repeating the same mistakes it made repeatedly back then, constantly saying that Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic and the Serbs must be ‘brought on board,'” Rhotert pointed out.
He warned Brussels, Berlin, and Paris that they are ignoring, as he put it, the fact that Serbia’s territorial ambitions threaten Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) and Kosovo and that it is deepening its relations with Russia.
“No one in Brussels wants to acknowledge how much the Moscow-Belgrade axis has developed. Helpless attempts are being made to bind Serbia by handing out billions of euros without conditions. This is happening despite Serbia’s democratic deficits and 65% of its population rejecting EU membership. In July, Berlin negotiated a billion-dollar agreement for the exploitation of Serbian lithium for the EU, exactly 33 years after Serbia’s attack on Croatia. The assessment was that this brought Serbia closer to the EU. Far from it, as demands to sanction Russia continue to be ignored,” Rhotert stressed.
He highlighted that military cooperation with Putin’s regime is strengthening. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that military-technical cooperation is developing “extremely dynamically,” including the purchase of Russian military equipment.
Rhotert also quoted Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, who stated that “Serbs in Serbia and Republika Srpska (RS) are struggling” and that their situation is worsening. He warned that the potential secession of RS could trigger a new war.
“Belgrade continually brings another potential war zone into play – Kosovo. The Serbs living there are being oppressed by the authorities in Pristina, and there is ‘ethnic cleansing’ – rhetoric used by Vucic’s mentor Milosevic in the late 1980s to prepare the population for aggressive wars,” Rhotert added.
According to Rhotert, Vucic has brought back some of Milosevic’s supporters to complete the failed Greater Serbia project. He believes that the United States (U.S.) has played the most significant role in preventing new wars in the Balkans.
“Although Washington conducts half-measures against Greater Serbian plans, without the interventions of U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Kosovo in October 2023 and CIA Director William Burns in BiH in August this year, there would likely be three wars in Europe right now,” the German political scientist claimed.
In the end, Rhotert advised the EU to learn lessons from its failed reconciliation policy if it wanted to avoid disaster in the Balkans.
About Alexander Rhotert
Since 1991, Alexander Rhotert has been involved with developments in the former Yugoslavia. He has worked for the UN, NATO, OSCE, and the Office of the High Representative (OHR) in BiH. He also served as a lieutenant colonel in the German military.
