The third meeting of the European political community began yesterday in Granada, Spain, which brought together leaders from all over the continent, while today‘s informal summit of EU members will discuss priorities in the coming years, of which migration and the European Union (EU) enlargement are at the forefront. Judging by yesterday‘s statement of the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, there is no dilemma about the plans for EU enlargement.
”The EU must prepare for enlargement. Enlargement means that the candidate countries must implement reforms,” Michel told.
Cautious in estimations
The very fact that the leaders of all 27 EU member states and European institutions have been discussing preparations for the admission of the countries of the Western Balkans, as well as Ukraine, Moldova, and possibly Georgia, and what reforms need to be implemented in EU institutions and policies, is encouraging news, according to Adnan Cerimagic, analyst of the European Stability Initiative (ESI).
”Realistically, since the enlargement of the EU to Croatia in 2013, apart from the usual messages about the perspective of membership for the countries that were then in the process, the member countries themselves were not interested in honestly and openly discussing the possibility of enlargement. In that sense, it is encouraging and positive news,” says Cerimagic.
However, after a series of promises and disappointments that we have experienced, not only from local leaders, but also from the EU, Cerimagic is cautious in his assessments.
”The facts that the EU will enter elections next year, that we will have a new European Commission, that we will have several national elections in the EU in the next few years, indicate that all these discussions and energy, and even possible concrete decisions in December, can dissipate very quickly. In this sense, when it talks about the enlargement policy, the EU assumes that the mere fact that they are discussing it will be enough to maintain interest in Ukraine and Moldova and that it will revive enthusiasm in the area of the Western Balkans,” explains Cerimagic.
Positive news
And precisely in the Western Balkans, all positive news like yesterday‘s will be followed by skeptical, more cautious reactions in which the year 2030 is mentioned as the year of admission of new EU members. Cerimagic expects that in December the EU will commit to reforms in its own structure, open negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova, and offer BiH and the region a European perspective.
”In addition, it will be necessary to offer certain benefits to the region even before membership in the EU, but based on the reforms and progress that the countries of the region would make. Otherwise, I am afraid that this enthusiasm, which exists in a certain part of the EU institutions and member states towards further enlargement, because of all the skeptics and those who will question such decisions, and who have power because the enlargement is consensual, will not create new dynamics in the region. The EU will then have an excuse to say – we were more serious, we offered, but you didn’t want to use it. North Macedonia goes to the elections and fails to change the constitution, for both Serbia and Kosovo, sanctions are now being mentioned because of the security threat that comes from there, Montenegro still does not have a new government… That is why BiH, along with Albania, is the only country in the region that could take a concrete step in December, the only question is whether there is such a readiness within BiH itself, whether there is an understanding of the situation in the EU but also in the region and the need for some more positive news to come from the region,” points out Adnan Cerimagic, analyst of the European Initiative for Stability ( ESI), Avaz reports.
E.Dz.
