Former Prime Minister of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina Fadil Novalić, who is currently serving a four year prison sentence in Vojkovići following the verdict in the “Respirators” affair, could soon be released on parole. The key date is March 21, 2026, when Novalić acquires the legal right to request conditional release.
According to the Criminal Code of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Article 44), a convicted person who has served half of the sentence may be released if their conduct has improved to a degree that justifies the expectation that they will not commit another criminal offence.
Novalić entered prison on March 22, 2024, which means that in March 2026 he will have served two years, half of his sentence. His legal team is already preparing the request, and it should also be noted that he has regularly been granted out of prison privileges such as weekend leave and days off due to exemplary behaviour.
The first body required to approve the request is the Vojkovići Prison Administration, followed by the Ministry of Justice of Bosnia and Herzegovina, more precisely the Commission for Parole.
Political Fate: Candidacy at the General Elections
Although release from prison in March would represent a kind of political victory for Novalić, primarily because his party SDA would likely use it as a pre-election narrative portraying him as a victim of politics, this would not automatically guarantee his return to the political arena. The question of his candidacy in the upcoming General Elections in October depends on two scenarios.
If Novalić is released exclusively through conditional parole, he would still be considered a person who has not fully served his sentence, as the remainder of the punishment would be served under conditional freedom. According to the current regulations of the Central Election Commission (CIK) and the Election Law, individuals who have not fully served a prison sentence for certain criminal offences are not eligible to run in elections.
Article 1.7 of the Election Law of Bosnia and Herzegovina stipulates that no person may run as a candidate or perform any elected, appointed or other public office if they are serving a sentence imposed by the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina or by courts in the entities or district, or if they have failed to comply with an order to appear before a court, including international courts.
Although a person may be physically outside prison, they are legally still considered to be serving a sentence. Parole is regarded as a manner of executing a sentence, not as its termination. As long as this period has not fully expired, meaning the full four years in Novalić’s case, he is, according to the interpretation of the CIK, still in the process of serving his punishment.
Strasbourg Is The Key
During the certification of candidate lists, the CIK conducts checks in criminal records. Under the law, a candidate cannot be a person against whom a court has imposed a security measure prohibiting the performance of a profession, activity or duty, a measure often imposed in cases involving abuse of office. The mere fact that the verdict has not been overturned means that, according to the CIK, Novalić remains a convicted person serving a sentence until March 2028, when the full sentence would expire.
The only realistic chance for Novalić’s candidacy in October lies with the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg. The Court has already accepted the appeals of Novalić and Solak and submitted three key questions to the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina, including those concerning alleged violations of the right to a fair trial and the presumption of innocence.
If the Court in Strasbourg rules in Novalić’s favor, this would provide grounds for the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina to overturn the original verdict and order a retrial.
In the event that the verdict is overturned, Novalić would legally be considered not convicted until the conclusion of the new proceedings, which would open the door wide for his candidacy in the October elections, should he choose to pursue it.
Ultimately, Novalić does not necessarily have to be a candidate, but the very fact that he could potentially be released will inevitably be used by the SDA as a symbolic political message.
