Next week, 135 cardinals will gather inside the Vatican for the conclave, a secret meeting at which they will decide who will succeed the late Pope Francis. People around the world are speculating: who will be the new head of the Catholic Church? But in Taiwan, a different question is more often asked: who will we send to the inauguration?
Former Vice President Chen Chien-jen recently returned from the Vatican, where he represented Taiwan at Francis’s funeral. But this devout Catholic hopes he won’t be sent again to greet the successor. Instead, he advocates for the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, to attend.
“We prayed for the possibility that Dr. Lai could attend the inauguration of the new pope,” Chen stated.
The reason Lai did not attend the funeral has not been confirmed, but there is much speculation – and all the assumptions involve Beijing. The Vatican is one of only 12 governments that recognize Taiwan as an independent state, and the only one in Europe. Presidents of Taiwan attended the funeral of Pope John Paul II and the first mass of Pope Francis. But in the years that followed, Taiwan’s geopolitical position has become increasingly complex.
The Communist Party of China claims Taiwan is a Chinese province and has pledged to annex it – by force, if necessary. In the meantime, it uses its global influence to prevent the Taiwanese government – which it calls “separatist” – from appearing on the international stage and has persuaded many of Taiwan’s allies to cut ties and recognize Beijing. Many observers believe this is precisely what happened with the Vatican during the Pope’s funeral.
After the news of Pope Francis’s death was announced, Taiwan quickly expressed its condolences. Deputy Foreign Minister Wu Chih-chung then publicly stated that Taiwan’s “most important goal” was for the President to lead the delegation at the funeral. But just a few hours later, it was announced that Chen – who had met Francis six times and was a member of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences – would represent Taiwan as “the best choice under the circumstances,” following talks with the Vatican.
Speculation spread that the Vatican had refused Lai’s attendance – or at least asked that he not be sent – under pressure from China. Neither Taipei, nor Beijing, nor the Vatican wanted to comment.
Beijing expressed its condolences relatively late – it happened at a press conference, when a spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, responding to a question about the Vatican, also emphasized that Taiwan is “an inalienable part of China.” China also sent no one to the funeral, which further fueled speculation that the Vatican had not agreed to exclude the Taiwanese delegation.
“We knew the [funeral] would be a headache, we knew China would demand that Taiwan not be allowed to attend, and we knew the Vatican couldn’t refuse, but also couldn’t reject Taiwan as a diplomatic partner, especially because there are Catholics there,” said Michel Chambon, a researcher at the National University of Singapore.
Taiwan’s presence at such events is not only a matter of honoring an important moment for a close ally. It is also a rare opportunity for meetings with world leaders at a time when Taiwan is seeking as much global support as possible to deter Chinese aggression.
Chen doesn’t know exactly how many foreign leaders and officials he met during the funeral but says there were many. “In the Square, I had the opportunity to meet, for example, with the former President Biden from the United States (U.S.), as well as with special envoys from Japan, Thailand, and South Korea – too many to list them all. It was a good opportunity to talk with representatives of governments of countries that share our values,” he stated. “With all our friends, we share the same thinking and we all value stability, security, and prosperity in the region,” said Chen. “We hope to preserve the freedom and openness of the Indo-Pacific.”
For the Vatican, Taiwan is an important partner of the Church, even though it is home to only 0.02% of the world’s Catholics. “It is a bridging church,” said Chen. Until about ten years ago, when tensions between China and Taiwan became too great, Chinese priests and nuns quietly came to Taiwanese seminaries and universities for theological education in their own language.
Pope Francis paid particular attention to Chinese Catholics throughout Asia. His farewell homily ended with a prayer in Mandarin – the only Asian language used on that occasion. It is estimated that there are around 12 million Catholics in China, and Francis made significant progress in negotiations with Beijing to secure their religious freedoms, including agreements on the appointment of bishops.
“We don’t know whether the new pope will love China like Francis did,” said Thomas Tu, an expert on Vatican diplomacy at the National Chengchi University in Taiwan. “But I think the Vatican wants to preserve that legacy.”
The question, however, is whether that legacy will come at the expense of Taiwan’s diplomatic status. Chen understands that the situation is complex: “The Holy See must receive assurances on religious freedoms [from Beijing] in order to protect all its flock in China, as a great shepherd. That is a great pressure.”
Chambon says that Pope Francis successfully balanced both relationships, strengthening ties with China while not damaging ties with Taiwan. “The Holy See does not want to abandon any group of Catholics in the world, including Taiwan,” he said. “It has managed to maneuver and resist pressures from Beijing to sever official ties.”
The Taiwanese government says it is still planning the composition of the delegation and has not confirmed whether Lai will lead it. Chambon thinks the Vatican probably hopes that Chen will return.
He added: “The Vatican does not want to completely reject Taiwan… I think they want something like the funeral situation – we want a delegation, but we don’t want to provoke Beijing.”
