Hundreds of thousands of passengers were stranded around the world after key air hubs in the Middle East were shut down in the aftermath of the US-Israeli attacks on Iran. Another hundred flights were canceled on Monday, which deepened the chaos in global air traffic and further worsened the situation for passengers. It is the heaviest blow to aviation since the covid-19 pandemic.
Thousands of canceled flights
Major airports in the Middle East, including Dubai, the world’s busiest international hub, were closed for the third day in a row. According to flight tracking platform FlightAware, almost 2,800 flights were canceled on Saturday, and 3,156 on Sunday. Early Monday morning alone, 1,239 flights were canceled. Airlines Emirates from Dubai, Etihad Airways from Abu Dhabi and Qatar Airways from Doha together canceled hundreds of flights, and other carriers, such as Air India, suspended their services in the region.
“There’s no silver lining for travelers,” said Henry Harteveldt, an aviation industry analyst and president of Atmosphere Research Group. “They should be prepared for delays or cancellations over the next few days as the attacks unfold and hopefully come to an end.”
Global fallout from the conflict
According to flight tracking site Flightradar24, airspace over Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Israel, Bahrain, the UAE and Qatar remained largely empty on Monday.
The fallout is being felt far beyond the Middle East, with travelers stranded in destinations from Bali to Frankfurt. The conflict has also spread to Lebanon, where Israel carried out airstrikes after Hezbollah fired rockets, closing much of the region’s airspace. Adding to the problem is that crews and pilots are now scattered around the world, making it difficult to resume flights once airspace reopens.
While most travelers struggle to access information, the ultra-rich are finding an alternative. “Saudi Arabia is currently the only real option for people who want to leave the region,” Ameerh Naran, CEO of private jet brokerage Vimana Private, told Semafor, estimating that the cost of a private jet flight from Riyadh to Europe could reach up to $350,000.
Economic blow
Shares of major airlines fell as investors feared the fallout from the war. Japan Airlines shares fell 5.6%, Singapore Airlines 4.5%, Qantas 5.4%, and Cathay Pacific 2.9%. Carriers are also facing higher fuel prices after the price of Brent crude jumped as much as 13% to $80 a barrel, with analysts predicting it could reach $100.
“The main impact for everyone will be felt through oil prices, which will obviously rise sharply,” said aviation consultant Bertrand Grabowski. The Gulf is also a key hub for air cargo, adding further strain to trade routes already affected by disruptions at sea.
Pressure on alternative corridors
Analysts point out that this long-term closure of the skies and all three major Gulf transit hubs is an unprecedented situation. The remaining flights are diverted to avoid closed airspace. Routes via Iran and Iraq have become more important since the war in Ukraine forced airlines to avoid Russian and Ukrainian airspace.
The closure of Middle Eastern airspace is now pushing airlines into even narrower corridors, with conflicts between Pakistan and Afghanistan creating additional risk, noted Ian Petchenik, director of communications at Flightradar24. “Long-term disruptions are the biggest concern for commercial aviation,” he said.
