The Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina (CBBH) estimates total inflation in the fourth quarter of 2025 at 4.2 percent, and core inflation at 4.3 percent.
Total inflation, according to the CBBH, has been slightly revised upwards (0.3 percentage points) compared to the flash estimates from September, due to the strong increase in food prices and overhead costs, primarily due to the increase in electricity prices. They currently estimate that inflation will gradually slow down in the short term, primarily due to the base effect.
– Our preliminary estimate of total inflation in the first quarter of 2026 is 3.8 percent, and core inflation is 3.5 percent. These estimates are based on the assumptions of current information from the labor market on minimum wages in 2026. Our estimates of economic activity and inflation in the short term are still in line with those from the autumn round of medium-term macroeconomic projections – the CBBH emphasizes.
The CBBH has estimated the growth of real economic activity in the third quarter of 2025 at 1.9 percent, which is almost identical to the estimate from September (two percent).
The preliminary estimate of the annual growth rate of real GDP for the last quarter of the current year is 2.1 percent and is based primarily on activities in the service sector, with a limited contribution from manufacturing activities.
