High-ranking officials in Kosovo are warning that Serbia is preparing for a possible attack or provocation against Kosovo. But how real is the risk?
Kosovo authorities have recently been frequently warning about a potential threat to the country from its northern neighbor, Serbia. But whenever they speak of such a threat, they mention Belgrade’s ally, Russia, which they say is interested in destabilizing northern Kosovo and the region.
According to Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti, Belgrade and Moscow have something in common: they want expansion.
And, according to the Speaker of the Kosovo Assembly Glauk Konjufca, Belgrade is preparing for a possible attack or provocation in Kosovo, similar to the one that was carried out against Kosovo police in Banjska in September.
However, Serbian Prime Minister Milos Vucevic described the warnings that Kosovo is under threat as “media drama,” saying that such things are “nothing but a smokescreen for Western sponsors.”
Diverting attention from the war in Ukraine
The threat of possible escalation in northern Kosovo is “big and real,” says Ivana Stradner, a senior research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, based in Washington.
She says this is because Russia – which does not recognize Kosovo’s independence – is trying to divert attention from the war in Ukraine, where, according to her, things are not going well.
Therefore, Stradner says, Russia is looking for “vulnerable points in the West, and currently, the most vulnerable point in Europe is the Balkans: Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) and Kosovo.”
The United States (U.S.) has identified northern Kosovo and threats of secession in parts of BiH as the main security risks in the region, emphasizing that the possibility of using force to resolve problems should be excluded.
Adrian Shtuni, a foreign policy and security expert based in Washington and an associate at the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism in The Hague, also does not rule out the possibility of violent incidents in Kosovo because, he says, there are circles in Serbia that aim for destabilization.
Shtuni shares the same opinion as Stradner that any new crisis hotspot, or the rekindling of old ones in the Western Balkans, “would suit Russia’s interests because it would divert the attention of NATO countries and other partners who have sided with Ukraine.”
Stradner, however, does not believe that there will be a large-scale conflict in the Western Balkans like the one in Ukraine. However, she claims that there are activities in the Balkans that can be considered “hybrid warfare.”
“The use of force can also be included because, according to Russian military strategy, hybrid warfare is not just disinformation, cybersecurity, sabotage, and other things, but also includes the use of force,” she warns, RSE writes.
E.Dz.
