Israel and its enemy, the Iranian-backed Lebanese Hezbollah movement, insist they do not want a full-scale conflict, but continue to take steps toward a war they insist they want to avoid.
Hezbollah, designated a terrorist organization by the United States (U.S.), took almost a month to carry out the promised attack on Israel due to the killing of its commander Fuad Shukr.
Israel, however, anticipated the attack and on Sunday carried out what the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said were pre-emptive strikes against Hezbollah rocket launchers, appearing to reduce the scope of the Iran-backed group’s offensive.
Raz Zimmt, a senior researcher at the National Security Institute in Tel Aviv, said that while neither side wants an all-out war, both are “very determined to impose their equation on the other side.”
So they continue to take risks by attacking each other, but mistakes and misjudgments can cause the conflict they want to avoid, Zimmt warned.
“This ongoing, so-called limited conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is very difficult to manage,” he added.
The IDF says around 100 fighter jets took part in the preemptive operation, while Hezbollah claims to have launched more than 300 rockets and drones at Israel. If the numbers are correct, it would be the largest exchange of fire between Israel and Hezbollah since the 2006 war that ended in a stalemate.
Without Israel’s pre-emptive strikes, the scale of the Hezbollah attack would have been devastating, Zimt said, adding that it would have provoked a “harsh” response from Israel.
Despite the heavy exchange of fire, the attacks do not appear to have – at least on the surface – affected negotiations on a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and securing the release of Israeli hostages from the Palestinian group Hamas, which the U.S. and the European Union (EU) consider a terrorist organization.
Zimmt said that although he is “not optimistic” about the prospects for a ceasefire, that such an agreement could help de-escalate tensions, although, as he stated, that is just speculation.
Hezbollah is going solo?
The Middle East has been nervous for weeks in anticipation of an attack on Israel, not only by Hezbollah but also from Iran.
Iran has vowed to retaliate against Israel after a bomb attack in central Tehran killed Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh. Israel has not commented on the attack.
Haniyeh was killed hours after Shukr, considered the second most powerful figure in Hezbollah, was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut.
Many have estimated that an Iranian attack on Israel will come together with strikes by Hezbollah.
However, the Lebanese group, which is more Iran’s partner than its proxy, seems to have grown tired of waiting and launched the attack itself.
“It is very important to note that Hezbollah did not wait for the Iranians,” Zimmt said, noting that one of the reasons Hezbollah waited so long to launch its counterattack was that it hoped to attack Israel together with Iran.
Nevertheless, the Lebanese group probably concluded that there will be no direct attack by Iran, at least for now.
“It could have some impact – maybe not immediately – on Hezbollah’s relationship with Iran,” Zimmt said, RSE writes.
E.Dz.
