The United States (U.S.) space agency relies on Elon Musk’s rockets for key missions to the International Space Station (ISS) and the return of astronauts to the Moon. Who will replace them while competitors are still trying to catch up with SpaceX?
SpaceX has found itself at the center of a quarrel between Donald Trump and the company’s founder, Elon Musk. The two have exchanged criticisms over President Trump’s budget proposal, and Musk complains that the budget includes too much spending and increases the deficit. On Thursday afternoon, the president posted on Truth Social: “The easiest way to save money in our budget – billions and billions of dollars – is to end Elon’s government subsidies and contracts.”
Musk responded on X (formerly Twitter): “Given the president’s announcement about canceling my government contracts, @SpaceX will immediately begin decommissioning the Dragon spacecraft.” (Several hours later, in response to another user, he said: “Okay, we won’t pull Dragon.”)
Most revenue from Starlink
If Trump really cancels the contracts or if Musk changes his mind again about Dragon, NASA could pay the highest price. Although the space agency played a key role in the early development of SpaceX, the company no longer needs it. According to Musk, SpaceX currently generates about 15.5 billion dollars in annual revenue. Forbes estimates that about 80 percent of that comes from their internet business, Starlink. SpaceX also launches dozens of commercial spacecraft every year.
Although SpaceX still generates significant income from government sources, NASA heavily depends on SpaceX. The U.S. space agency launched more than half of its rockets last year using SpaceX. Although NASA has other partners in the space industry, many of them have been years behind SpaceX in terms of development.
The only one for transporting astronauts
For example, Rocket Lab from Los Angeles was the second-largest satellite launch company for NASA last year. However, their Electron rocket can only carry small satellites, not the larger spacecraft that NASA typically uses. Although the company is working on a larger rocket, its first flight is not expected before later this year.
SpaceX is currently the only U.S. company that can transport astronauts to the ISS, thanks to its Dragon spacecraft. Without it, NASA would once again have to rely on the Russian space agency to transport astronauts until Boeing certifies its Starliner spacecraft. That could take a while since technical problems during the first flight last June left two astronauts stuck on the ISS for months. Neither Boeing nor NASA has yet provided a timeline for the second mission.
Questionable Artemis program
SpaceX not only transports crew to the ISS but also delivers most of the cargo. Although there is one significant alternative – Cygnus, operated by Northrop Grumman – its last two flights were launched using SpaceX rockets, and a third is planned for later this year. A third cargo option, being developed by Sierra Space, will not have its first flight before the end of the year.
The conflict between Trump and Musk could also affect NASA’s future plans. SpaceX has been a key part of NASA’s Artemis program, which plans to return astronauts to the Moon. In the budget proposal published this month, the Trump administration proposes retiring NASA’s SLS rocket and Orion capsule after the third and final planned mission. They are to be replaced by spacecraft from Blue Origin (Jeff Bezos) and SpaceX.
Rejected director because of Musk?
The timing of these events could not be worse for NASA, which is currently without a director. President Trump nominated billionaire Jared Isaacman for head of NASA, and the proposal had the support of both Republicans and Democrats. But last Friday, the White House withdrew his nomination, just a few days before he was supposed to be confirmed in the Senate.
This may also have contributed to the escalation of the conflict between Trump and Musk. Isaacman’s company, Shift4, is an investor in SpaceX, and Isaacman himself has contracted two separate space missions with the company. On Wednesday, he said that he believes that his connection with Musk may have ruined his nomination: “There were people who had their reasons. I was an easy target.”, Forbes writes
