Bosnia and Herzegovina is entering a new round of political uncertainty, and instead of agreeing on a new High Representative, a temporary solution has been reached. Instead of political consensus, there is a new deadline. Instead of a clear strategy by the international community, the division between the key actors is increasingly visible.
The OHR is in a transitional regime and is on its third day under an acting High Representative, the US diplomat Louis Crishock, who will, over the next two weeks, hold political and institutional control over the OHR. This new deadline for reaching an agreement on the candidate is acceptable to everyone.
The Search for the New EU Candidate
“We are working on aligning the European candidate as the new High Representative. There were many good suggested candidates, but you know how it is in the European Union – there are many of us, but we are unanimously trying to agree on a candidate acceptable to everyone,” said the High Representative of the European Union for the Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas.
Washington achieved its first goal with Schmidt’s departure and knows it has a bargaining chip compared to Europe, which is under pressure to find a joint solution. Does the temporary mandate from July 14th mean more time for agreement, or signals deeper division and interests within the international community?
“It is a bad thing for Bosnia and Herzegovina that, for the first time, it has become a very obvious and sharp rift between the European Union and the United States. The conflict, cooperation, and differences in positions were always present, but the US has always dealt with the pragmatic matters, while the European Representatives were leading the OHR on a technical level,” said the political analyst, Davor Gjenero.
Challenging Staffing and Institutional Matters
Experts warn that complex political outvoting is ongoing, including the question of whether to accept the future High Representative among different actors, as well as the extent of the use of the Bonn Powers.
“In fact, opinions are still clashing over a candidate who would be acceptable to various actors, including the positions of the United States and other stakeholders in the Steering Board. First, who could be that person, primarily, noting that according to the US position, it could be someone who is acceptable to the policy elites in Republika Srpska, but in the rest of the country,” said Professor of Constitutional Law, Davor Trlin.
The Question of the Duration of the Acting Status
There is caution regarding Bosnia and Herzegovina, so it is important to maintain monitoring and open a limited-duration issue. But can the temporary solution and the acting democracy signify a new political norm in this building, where Crishock remains longer than planned if there is no consensus?
“What is currently obvious is that the US Representative over the next period will implement priorities of US politics, which include diminishing the significance and the influence of the OHR and preparations for its abolition,” Gjenero said.
Trlin assessed that the solution could arrive very fast, considering the open issues and political tensions.
“My stance is that a solution should arrive quickly, as there is a large number of unresolved matters from the 5+2 Agenda, as well as tensions regarding human rights and freedom of expression, including announcements referring to criminalizing the display of the flag of the Army of the Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina,” Trlin said.
Fragile Stability and Pre-Election Period
While European officials warn about fragile stability, Bosnia and Herzegovina enters a pre-electoral and politically sensitive period with an acting director at the head of the institution, which for decades served as a crucial political corrective, safety guarantee, and protector of the Dayton Agreement.
