A day after the harsh criticism of James O’Brian, the US Assistant Secretary of State for Europe and Asia and one of the authors of the Dayton Agreement – an analysis follows. And problems and responsibilities. The culprits for the situation are named. Suppression of corruption mentioned as a solution. However, harsh rhetoric, introduced sanctions and announcements of new ones did not improve the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina much. Will the last speech of the American official mark a new round of sanctions or a more specific action by international actors? If those responsible are already known, how to make them replace their personal interests with those of the state?
“The risk of division caused by political rhetoric and threats from Republika Srpska. In the energy sector, we see that HDZ BiH leader Dragan Čović is blocking the Southern Interconnection. The wife of the SDA president was recently dismissed from the position of director of the University Clinical Center in Sarajevo, one of the largest hospitals in the country. The SDA was also involved in the notorious ventilator case, and when they were in power, the SDA leaders exploited BH Telecom for personal gain. And of course, Milorad Dodik and his SNSD have been directing contracts towards his family members and friends for years,” said O’Brien.
Criticisms continued, including the agreement from Laktaši. Personal interests of politicians are characterized as a threat to progress. Pretty much – everything we’ve been hearing for years. However, it is significant that these messages come directly from a senior State Department official. Analysts recall the recent warnings of the President of the USA due to his support for Russia, as well as the Secretary General of the USA regarding the tendency of Dragan Čović to change the operator of the gas transmission system by connecting to the Southern Interconnection. Now, they judge, O’Brian has made the messages concrete.
“The messages are very clear and everyone to whom they are addressed would have to think hard about them. American politics always first sends very general and careful messages, and as the level from which these messages come descends, they become harsher and more unpleasant, but at some point a situation arises in which there are no more messages, but no more conversations,” says the politician and independent politician. consultant Davor Gjenero.
“Criticism of Milorad Dodik crossed the line a long time ago, he has been on the black list for a long time. Now the question is whether Dragan Čović will make peace a little, implicitly give in, according to the good old recipe, and again in the end try to get some benefit of his own, or will he also be sanctioned, as was announced”, says communication expert Mladen Bubonjić.
Are announcements of sanctions and warnings a test for Bosnia and Herzegovina? Leaders, voters or the United States of America to justify their mantra that they are friends of Bosnia and Herzegovina? The warnings are clear, but there are no individual sanctions yet. Insiders warn that even those who are under sanctions win the elections and many key decisions for Bosnia and Herzegovina still depend on them, but also that the situation in the country is clearly influenced by factors from neighboring countries.
“Sanctions – if they are not strictly enforced – do not have much significance, and this is confirmed by the fact that O’Brien met yesterday with Željka Cvijanović, who is under American sanctions, which is absolutely unacceptable. We can safely say that Andrej Plenković symbolizes today’s Franjo Tuđman, and his counterpart in Bosnia and Herzegovina instead of Mate Boban is Dragan Čović. As long as we have such a situation and until the Americans take significant steps, i.e., in the first instance of sanctioning, we can see that they have really serious intentions to resolve the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina”, points out Zijad Bećirović, director of the International Institute for Middle Eastern and Balkan Studies IFIMES .
Bećirović emphasizes that the USA is powerful enough to resolve the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina in a short period of time. O’Brian’s speech to political science students is clear and to the point. Moves are pending. Are the American friends offering another chance to Bosnia and Herzegovina? leaders to take the warnings seriously? Or, perhaps, emphasizing support for the high representative and the use of Bonn powers is a sign that he should act before the US? Be that as it may, the time for concrete moves by anyone is short and the question is whether without them the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina and its citizens will have room for progress at all or will forever be victims of the personal interests of high-ranking individuals.
