If the crisis in Ukraine worsens, a direct military confrontation between the United States (U.S.) and Russia is possible, warned General Gregory Guillot, commander of the U.S. Northern Command (USNORTHCOM), in a written address to the Senate.
Guillot stated before U.S. senators that “the likelihood of a conflict between the U.S. and one of the four main adversaries – Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran – is increasing.”
The general believes that although these countries are trying to avoid direct armed conflict with the U.S., their growing belief in the “decline of the West” is encouraging a willingness to challenge the U.S. on the global stage and increases the risk of miscalculation in crisis situations.
Guillot cites several possible paths of escalation of the war in Ukraine that could lead to direct conflict with the U.S., but also emphasizes that the situation in the Middle East threatens to draw the U.S. into a military conflict with Iran and its allies.
He also warns that tensions around Taiwan, in the South China Sea, and on the Korean Peninsula carry a constant risk of the outbreak of conflict with China or North Korea.
In his address, the general particularly highlighted the deepening military cooperation between Russia, China, and North Korea, and mentioned the participation of North Korean troops in fighting in Russia’s Kursk region, as well as joint Russian-Chinese military exercises in the Arctic.
Sudden shift in U.S.-Russia relations
Despite rising tensions, relations between the U.S. and Russia are showing certain signs of normalization. After Donald Trump’s return to the White House, diplomatic contacts between Washington and Moscow have intensified. Negotiators from both sides are visiting both Russia and the U.S., and meetings are also being held in third countries, such as Saudi Arabia. During these talks, the parties agreed to resume the work of embassies.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that relations between the two countries are returning to the path of normalization, emphasizing that Moscow advocates for equal dialogue and a balance of interests.
According to Russian sources, the talks also mention the possibility of cooperation in the Arctic. The head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, Kirill Dmitriev, stated that both sides are considering joint projects, especially in the field of exploration of energy and other natural resources.
According to U.S. media, Washington sees this cooperation as a potential tool for separating Russia and China, with a focus on economic interests in the Arctic region.
