One year after Donald Trump’s return to the White House, a comprehensive international survey shows that a large part of the world believes his “America First” policy and the slogan “Make America Great Again” are not strengthening the United States (U.S.), but – paradoxically – are contributing to the strengthening of China’s global influence.
According to a survey conducted for the respected think tank, the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), Trump’s confrontational, unilateral policy has weakened perceptions of the U.S. as a reliable ally, especially in Europe, while at the same time, China is increasingly being seen as an indispensable global partner – or even an ally.
China on the rise, the U.S. in decline in trust
The research included nearly 26.000 respondents in 21 countries, including 13 European Union (EU) member states, the U.S., China, India, Russia, Turkey, Brazil, South Africa, and South Korea. The results are clear: in almost all surveyed countries, a majority of citizens expect China’s global influence to grow over the next decade.
The strongest expectations were recorded in South Africa (83%), Brazil (72%), and Turkey (63%). Even in the U.S., 54% of respondents believe China will become even more influential, while the same view is shared by 53% of respondents in ten EU countries, 51% in India, and 50% in the United Kingdom (UK).
It is particularly significant that a large share of Europeans expect China to soon assume global leadership in the sectors of electric vehicles and renewable energy sources – areas that are key to future economic and technological dominance.
Fear of China – the exception, not the rule
Despite China’s growing influence, most respondents do not express particular concern about this trend. Only in Ukraine and South Korea do majorities view China as a rival or enemy. By contrast, in South Africa, India, and Brazil, more people today see China as an ally than they did two years ago.
In South Africa (85%), Russia (86%), and Brazil (73%), China is predominantly perceived as an “indispensable partner” or ally. In the EU, this view remains stable – 45% of citizens see China as a necessary partner, while many countries expect further strengthening of mutual relations.
The U.S. no longer appears as a reliable pillar
At the same time, the status of the U.S. as a global leader and ally has been significantly undermined. Outside Brazil, India, South Africa, and Turkey, there is not a single country in which a majority of respondents believe U.S. influence will continue to grow – including the U.S. itself.
India is the only country where a majority of citizens still consider the U.S. an ally that shares their values and interests. In the EU, the picture is far darker: only 16% of Europeans today see the U.S. as an ally, while as many as 20% perceive the U.S. as a rival or enemy.
This decline in trust is particularly pronounced in the context of Trump’s rhetoric, his unilateral moves, and distancing from multilateral institutions and alliances.
Europe arms itself, Russia shifts perceptions of enemies
The research also shows big changes in perceptions of Europe, especially in Russia and Ukraine. In Russia, 51% of respondents today see the EU as an enemy, up from 41% last year, while the share of those who perceive the U.S. as an enemy fell from 48% to 37%.
In Ukraine, the trend is reversed: 39% of citizens now see the EU as the main ally, while only 18% think the same of the U.S. – a drop from 27% last year. This points to Kyiv’s increasing reliance on Brussels, while trust in Washington is weakening.
In China, meanwhile, 61% of respondents see the U.S. as a threat, while only 19% think the same of the EU. Interestingly, 59% of Chinese respondents consider the EU a great power, and 46% see it as a partner – a view shared by 40% of Americans, despite Trump’s openly hostile rhetoric toward the EU.
Europeans are skeptical of their own power
Although China and parts of the world view the EU as an important actor, Europeans themselves are becoming increasingly skeptical. Nearly half (46%) do not believe the EU is strong enough to negotiate on equal footing with the U.S. or China, an increase compared to last year.
Pessimism is widespread: 49% of Europeans do not expect a positive future for their own countries, while 51% fear for global stability. As many as 55% fear a major war in Europe, and 40% fear direct Russian aggression. More than half of respondents (52%) support increased defense spending.
A world in which the U.S. moves strengthen China
The authors of the report, Ivan Krastev, Mark Leonard, and Timothy Garton Ash, conclude that the survey depicts a world in which U.S. decisions, instead of strengthening its own position, indirectly strengthen China. Trump’s actions, including interventions in Venezuela and territorial ambitions toward Greenland, indicate that he has “decided that for a great power it is better to be feared than respected.”
In this context, they warn, Europe could end up “squeezed between great powers or completely ignored.” “European leaders should no longer ask whether their citizens understand how profound the geopolitical changes are. They already see it clearly,” the authors state.
The report’s conclusion is clear: the old world order is a finished story. Europe must now be both realistic and courageous, find a way to become one of the pillars of a multipolar world, or risk disappearing in the shadow of other global powers.
