Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East increase uncertainty in energy supplies, which is almost always reflected in the price of a barrel on global stock markets. For countries like Bosnia and Herzegovina, which are almost entirely dependent on the import of oil and oil derivatives, such developments have direct consequences. When fuel becomes more expensive, economists warn, a chain reaction is almost inevitable – more expensive transportation, more expensive production, and ultimately more expensive products on the shelves.
Fuel prices in Bosnia and Herzegovina are rising again, and economists’ forecasts are uncertain and pessimistic. Instabilities on the world market are already spilling over to domestic pumps. Experts warn that rising fuel prices could trigger a new wave of price increases for basic products.
“Today you have the president of the most powerful country who says: ‘We have calculated that we will go to war at least until September.’ So until September you attack Iran, and the consequences of such attacks are catastrophic in terms of international flows of oil, capital and everything else. All in all, it is very bad and reflects badly on ordinary people,” said sociologist Prof. Dr. Drago Vuković.
Sectors that depend on transport and energy will be affected first. Agriculture, industry and food production.
“Inflation is on the way and prices will certainly rise. Fuel started first, and then bakery products will most likely become more expensive, because they are usually the first to follow such trends. We will see about the rest, but it is certain that the situation will be difficult,” said Jovan Vasilič, president of the Consumer Protection Association “Zvono” Bijeljina.
The food production sector is particularly sensitive. Rising fuel prices increase the costs of tillage, transport and distribution, which is why producers warn that the pressure on prices will increase.
“I think we are already in trouble and will be in an even bigger one, unless we try to reach an agreement to protect farmers, that is, to pass a law on incentives,” said Savo Bakajlić, president of the Association of Agricultural Producers of Semberija and Majevica.
Bakers point out that the increase in fuel costs directly increases the cost of transportation and production, but that it is still too early to estimate how much bread and bakery products could become more expensive.
“We don’t know what the other suppliers will do, whether they will raise prices and by how much. When they raise prices, based on these cost increases, we will make a calculation and then know exactly how much they will increase. At this moment, I would not guess whether it will be ten or twenty pfennigs”, said Radenko Pelemiš, president of the Association of Bakers of the Bijeljina region.
In a country where incomes are limited and food prices are already high, every new price increase puts an additional burden on the daily life of citizens.
“We have come to a position where we live by the principle of ‘do what you know and can do.’
Experts warn that in such situations it is important to prevent panic and possible shortages on the market.
“Governments can react with certain interventional imports, that is, try to provide through the budget goods that we do not have enough in stock, so that we can intervene in the event of possible shortages, because that is exactly what people fear the most”, pointed out Vasilič.
Vuković appealed to citizens not to panic.
“I appeal to the citizens not to panic. This type of conflict is not like the conflicts that were characteristic of our areas. What is bad is that these kinds of conflicts affect our standard, make life more expensive and create a sense of fear,” said Vuković.
Where the limit of price growth is, it is difficult to estimate for now. What is certain is that both producers and citizens will face the coming months with much more caution in planning their expenses.
