While many Arab countries feel a growing threat from Israel, the defense pact of Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, announced this week, brings Pakistan and its nuclear umbrella into the security equation of the region.
“The strategic agreement on mutual defense,” signed on Wednesday, practically merges Saudi money with Pakistan’s huge nuclear-armed army, analysts say. Few details have been published, and the official Pakistani nuclear doctrine states that the weapons are aimed solely against the long-time rival India.
But Riyadh is hinting that under the agreement, it will have a de facto nuclear shield, while analysts assess that Israel, widely understood as the only nuclear power in the Middle East, will be carefully monitoring developments.
Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif said that nuclear weapons “are not on the radar” of the pact. He added that the agreement could also be expanded to other Gulf countries.
“We have no intention of using this pact for any aggression,” said Asif. “But if the parties are threatened, then this arrangement will, of course, be activated.”
Riyadh may view the nuclear issue differently. The Gulf Arab states claim that Israel, which has never confirmed nor denied that it possesses nuclear weapons, showed that it is a direct threat after its unprecedented strikes on Qatar last week. Saudi Arabia also said that if rival Iran acquires nuclear weapons, it too will go down that path.
Asked whether Pakistan is now obliged to provide Saudi Arabia with a nuclear umbrella, a senior Saudi official said: “This is a comprehensive defense agreement that covers all military assets.”
Analysts believe that the agreement also reflects declining trust in the security guarantees of the United States (U.S.).
“From the Saudi perspective, the goal is to compensate for the strategic and conventional deterrence deficit in relation to nuclear-armed Israel,” said Hasan Alhasan, senior fellow for Middle East policy at London’s International Institute for Strategic Studies.
The Saudi statement notes that the pact “aims to develop aspects of defense cooperation between the two countries and strengthen joint deterrence.” The Saudi government did not answer the question of whether the agreement includes Pakistani nuclear weapons. Officials in Washington and Israel also did not immediately comment. The pact could also raise concerns in India and in Iran.
Pakistani nuclear weapons
Pakistan, the only Muslim state with nuclear weapons, is one of the poorer Asian countries, but possesses an army of more than 600.000 soldiers to defend against the much larger rival India, with which it has fought three major wars and numerous conflicts, including a four-day conflict in May – the heaviest fighting in recent decades.
Wednesday’s announcement did not mention nuclear weapons or any financial payments to Pakistan. “The agreement states that any attack on one country will be considered an attack on both,” Pakistan said.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif thanked the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for “his sincere interest in expanding Saudi investments, trade and business ties.”
India and Pakistan developed nuclear weapons in the late 1990s, and Pakistan developed missiles that can strike deep into India. But, if directed the other way, Pakistan’s longest-range missiles could, at least in theory, also reach Israel.
Adil Sultan, a former military officer who worked in Pakistan’s Strategic Plans Division, said that its missiles can reach all of India.
“Israel has never felt comfortable with Pakistan’s nuclear weapons,” said Sultan, today dean of the Faculty of Aerospace and Strategic Studies at the Islamic University in Islamabad. “But that capability is very modest and intended only for India.”
Last year, a senior White House official said that Pakistan is developing long-range ballistic missiles that could enable it to strike targets far beyond South Asia. Islamabad denied this.
Abdulaziz Sager, president of the Saudi Gulf Research Center, said that it is too early to draw conclusions about the nuclear element.
“Events have shown the limitations of relying solely on external protection, especially from the U.S.,” said Sager.
U.S. President Donald Trump had hoped to expand the Abraham Accords – which established diplomatic ties between Israel and Arab states – to include Saudi Arabia during his second term. But Riyadh made it clear that it will not establish relations with Israel until the war in Gaza ends and until there is a path to Palestinian statehood.
Pakistan steps into the Middle East.
Pakistan has long had a small military contingent in Saudi Arabia, but this week’s agreement signals far greater involvement.
“For Pakistan, the projection of power into the Middle East is enormous, even though it has entered a volatile region,” said Maleeha Lodhi, former Pakistani ambassador to the U.S.
Mushahid Hussain, former chairman of the defense committee of Pakistan’s Senate, stated that Pakistan’s outlook since its founding has been pan-Islamist.
“Pakistan has military capability, and in return, what we get is economic strengthening,” said Hussain. “Pakistan is a new strategic option for these Gulf states.”
Pakistan is struggling to compete with India’s defense budget, which is at least seven times larger, meaning that any new Saudi financial injection could somewhat balance the power relation. Saudi Arabia has been financially assisting Islamabad for decades, and the latest aid was a 3 billion dollar loan.
India said on Thursday that it will “study the implications of this development on national security, as well as on regional and global stability.”
