The day of the verdict against the President of the Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, and the acting director of the “Official Gazette of the RS”, Miloš Lukić, for disrespecting the decisions of the High Representative in BiH, is approaching. The SNSD has announced that it will take radical measures in the event of a conviction. Will this affect the political and security situation in BiH and how?
The Republika Srpska will have a clear answer in the event of a verdict against the President of the RS, because he is being tried for fulfilling the obligations to which the Constitution obliges him. Various options are ready, and all of them, the SNSD says, are in accordance with the Constitutions of BiH and the RS and the Dayton Agreement. They say that the RS has a new Constitution ready for adoption for a long time.
“We have already prepared a new Constitution a long time ago and are waiting for the moment when that new constitution will be adopted, probably in a referendum of all citizens of the RS, because that Constitution should eliminate everything that high representatives have illegally and unlawfully changed in the Constitution of the RS,” says SNSD spokesperson Radovan Kovačević.
The powers that were not defined by the Dayton Agreement and were later transferred through the Parliament by vote can only be returned in the same way, the president of the People and Justice party replies. While we are there, that will never happen, claims Elmedin Konaković.
“Dodik would now unilaterally, everything that he voted to transfer to the jurisdiction of the BiH level, he would unilaterally terminate. That is not possible, that is not known in law, it is not appropriate and it will never happen,” says the leader of NiP.
Whatever the outcome of the judicial process in the case of Dodik and Lukić, it will cause strong reactions in BiH and the region, analysts agree. We can expect a complication of political relations depending on the decisions made.
“The temperature will probably rise until the moment the verdict is pronounced. What will happen after that is very difficult to predict, given the existence of these numerous scenarios,” believes political analyst Tanja Topić.
“It is obvious that the measures announced in the RS, which are the ban on the work of SIPA, the Court and the Prosecutor’s Office on the territory of the RS, are measures that have elements of a coup d’état. Now the only question is whether Dodik will take the initiative and step into it. Now the question is how the institutions responsible for protecting the constitutional order will react and whether he is able to react in the right way in the event of an open rebellion to protect the constitutional order,” says journalist and political analyst Amir Sužanj.
A two-day rally has been announced in front of the RS National Assembly, which will be in permanent session, ahead of the verdict. Citizens are asking how the overall situation will affect security in BiH?
“The rally will not disrupt the security situation, but what could happen after a possible guilty verdict – it could be a really big challenge for BiH,” says Slobodan Župljanin, dean of the Banja Luka Faculty of Security and Protection.
“I don’t think the issue of security is at risk. If there were to be certain gatherings or minor security incidents, I think the state has and should have very precise plans,” says criminal psychology professor Sandi Dizdarević.
NATO headquarters and the EUFOR mission emphasized the importance of preserving stability and peace and said they would prevent any attempt at destabilization in the country.
