The economic growth of Bosnia and Herzegovina will slow down from 2.4 percent in 2025 to 2.3 percent in 2026, while inflation will rise from four to five percent, forecasts the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the latest report on world economic prospects (World Economic Outlook).
At the same time, the IMF warns that the world economy, despite its resilience so far, is facing increasingly serious risks due to the war in the Middle East, high energy prices and an increase in public debt.
According to the IMF’s October projections, the growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) of Bosnia and Herzegovina will slow down from 2.4 percent, which was estimated for 2025, to 2.3 percent this year, while a slight acceleration of economic growth to 2.6 percent is expected in 2027.
At the same time, average annual inflation in BiH should rise from four percent in 2025 to five percent in 2026, after which the IMF predicts its slowdown to 3.3 percent in 2027.
The report also states that the current account deficit of Bosnia and Herzegovina will amount to 4.9 percent of GDP this year, compared to 3.1 percent in 2025, while a deficit of 4.8 percent of GDP is predicted for next year.
The unemployment rate, according to IMF projections, should remain at 12.2 percent during 2026 and 2027.
Forecasts show that some countries in the region will achieve slightly higher economic growth this year than Bosnia and Herzegovina. Serbia is predicted to grow by 3.3 percent, Montenegro by three percent, Albania and North Macedonia by 3.5 percent each, while Croatia’s economy should grow by 2.2 percent.
At the global level, the IMF predicts economic growth of 3.1 percent in 2026 and 3.4 percent in 2027. The forecast for this year is unchanged compared to the April report, while expectations for the next year have improved moderately.
Despite this, the IMF warns that the favorable overall indicators mask increasingly pronounced differences between economies, especially between countries that benefit from the accelerated development of artificial intelligence and those that are strongly exposed to rising energy prices.
According to the Fund’s estimates, global inflation will rise from 4.1 percent in 2025 to 4.7 percent this year, primarily due to higher energy and food prices, while it should return to 4.1 percent in 2027.
In the report, the IMF points out that the world economy has faced a series of exceptional disturbances during the past years, including the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, the conflict in the Middle East and changes in international trade relations.
Although financial systems and labor markets have shown considerable resilience, the possibilities of countries to mitigate the consequences of new crises are becoming increasingly limited.
IMF Chief Economist Silvana Tenreyro warned in the foreword of the report that the global economy could soon reach the limits of its resilience if countries do not strengthen production capacities and restore financial reserves to respond to future shocks.
Of particular concern is the prolonged conflict in the Middle East, which has led to serious disruptions in the international supply of oil and other energy products.
The IMF states that before the start of the conflict, approximately 20 million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz per day, or about a quarter of the world’s total seaborne oil trade.
The consequences of the closure of this important maritime route have so far been partially mitigated by redirecting deliveries, increasing production in other countries, using existing stocks and less dependence of the world economy on oil compared to previous decades.
In addition to energy disruptions, the IMF singles out high public debt as one of the key risks. Government borrowing costs are rising, and many governments have already used a significant portion of fiscal reserves to mitigate the effects of previous crises.
The Fund warns that the combination of high debt, rising interest rates and new inflationary pressures could further limit the ability of countries to protect the economy and the population.
At the same time, accelerated investments in artificial intelligence represent one of the important factors supporting world economic growth. Increased demand for technological equipment, semiconductors and digital infrastructure has stimulated investment and international trade.
