Analysts, current and former officials from Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) consider the visit of the director of the United States (U.S.) Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) to BiHand Serbia as a response to the challenges posed by the influence of the Kremlin in the region and the secessionist aspirations of pro-Russian politicians from BiH entity Republika Srpska (RS).
“I am convinced that this is a serious problem, because the director of the CIA rarely goes on such missions and publicly announces it. I assume that one of the reasons is the growing malignant influence of Serbia and Russia in the Balkans,” assessed Srdja Pavlovic, historian and associate of the Wirth Institute of the University of Alberta from Canada.
A U.S. government official who asked not to be named told that the discussions between William Burns and associates with the head of the Intelligence Security Agency, the Presidency and the Minister of Foreign Affairs of BiH on August 20th were, among other things, focused on the escalation of tension instigated by Milorad Dodik, President of the RS.
On the other side of the Drina, Serbia rejects pressure from the West by avoiding the introduction of sanctions against Russia due to the aggression against Ukraine introduced by the European Union (EU), the U.S. and other Western countries.
Belgrade also avoids extraditing the suspects for organizing the attack in Banjska in the north of Kosovo in September last year, while talks on the normalization of relations with Pristina are at a standstill.
Milorad Dodik openly stands by Vladimir Putin, with whom he has met several times since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
BiH “joined” the EU sanctions, but did not implement them due to the opposition of political representatives from the RS in the State Council of Ministers of BiH, led by Dodik’s Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD).
Dodik and the top of the RS found themselves under U.S.sanctions for violating the Dayton Peace Agreement, which stopped the war in this country, and for corruption.
Companies that are owned by Dodik’s family or, as explained, are connected to him, were also sanctioned.
What message does the CIA director’s visit send?
Margarita Assenova, a senior associate at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington, told that Serbia “has been causing problems in BiH for some time” and that it has become “more visible and more dangerous.”
“Burns’ visit is a very good message to Serbia that the U.S. will not tolerate its actions,” Assenova said.
She believes that the problems in the Balkans would benefit the Kremlin because they could distract the U.S. and Europe from the Russian war in Ukraine.
Kadri Kastrati, former commander of the Kosovo Security Forces, said that “Russia is waging a hybrid war in the Western Balkans.”
“The greatest danger of conflict is in BiH through RS and in the north of Kosovo. The visit of high officials to this area indicates that they have enough information about Russian efforts via its satellite Serbia, that this part of Europe is at risk of a possible conflict and it is certain that came here to give their recommendations,” Kastrati believes.
Hybrid war is a model of warfare or conflict in which activities related to information and media warfare are primarily used, and if this type of warfare does not achieve the desired effect, the possible use of armed force occurs.
Nedzad Korajlic, a professor at the Faculty of Security Studies at the University of Sarajevo, told that the U.S. is aiming to prevent an escalation in BiH “especially those ideas that come from the RS entity”.
“There can be nothing negative for BiH. There can be certain negative consequences for certain individuals, especially those who are on black lists,” Korajlic believes.
He reminded that the American sanctions had a negative impact on the financial flows of the RS.
The U.S. sanctioned the top of the RS entity, but also the former prime minister of another entity, the Federation of BiH (FBiH), the former chief state prosecutor and the former head of the Intelligence and Security Agency of BiH (OSA BiH), among others.
The U.S. also sanctioned the former head of the Security and Information Agency of Serbia, and today the minister in the Government of Serbia, Aleksandar Vulin.
What can be expected in the future?
Armin Krzalic, a professor at the Faculty of Security Studies of the University of Sarajevo, believes that the U.S. policy from Dayton until today will continue in the future “in the context of protecting American interests”.
“And that interest is the preservation of the sovereign, integral state of BiH with all its characteristics. The U.S. will develop mechanisms and opportunities for all those who threaten their interests in this area, especially in the context of preserving the integrity of BiH,” Krzalic believes.
About ten days after the visit of Anna Morris, acting assistant U.S. finance minister, to Sarajevo on March 7th, banks in BiHbegan to close the accounts of individuals and companies from the “black list” so that they would not be subject to sanctions.
Ilija Cvitanovic, state representative of the ruling Croatian Democratic Union in 1990 and member of the Commission for Oversight of the Intelligence and Security Agency of BiH, told that the visit of the head of the CIA to BiH and Serbia “is also an indication that those in charge of assessing the security situation all over the world are very interested in BiH and will not give up on BiH”.
“Also, those who give themselves the right to often go overboard when it comes to attacking the Constitution can be worried about the visit, because this visit is – I am 100 percent sure – a message of the U.S. commitment to BiH,” Cvitanovicsaid.
Semsudin Mehmedovic, a former opposition representative of the Democratic Action Party, and today the leader of the Naprijed party and a member of the Commission for Oversight of the BiH OSA, told that the “disintegration political process” that engulfed BiH has something to do with Russian influence in the Balkans.
“This visit by the director of the CIA can be seen in that context,” Mehmedovic believes.
Mehmedovic said that “secessionism and the policy of destruction of some officials in BiH, who are, above all, satellites of political Belgrade, have something to do with the visits of Mr. Burns to Sarajevo and Belgrade”.
“We will see the consequences of the visit in the coming period,” said Mehmedovic, RSE writes.
E.Dz.
