While eastern and northern Europe are rapidly adapting to security risks, in the western part of the continent, a war with Russia is still perceived as an abstract possibility, distant from everyday reality. Differences in threat perception and levels of preparedness are becoming increasingly pronounced, as shown by political statements, concrete government measures, and public opinion research data.
In France, a statement by the Chief of the Armed Forces, General Fabien Mandon, triggered strong reactions in November when he warned that, in the event of a conflict with Russia by 2030, the country would have to be prepared for heavy sacrifices.
“We must accept that we will lose our children,” Mandon said, stressing that preparations concern not only the military but society as a whole, because France would be vulnerable if it were not ready to endure suffering. His words provoked outrage and disbelief among a part of the public.
A similar tone is present in the United Kingdom (UK). In mid-December, the head of the UK intelligence service, Blaise Metreweli, assessed that Western Europe is living “in the space between peace and war.” For countries geographically closer to Russia, such as the Baltic states, Poland, and the Nordic countries, the concept of war readiness has long been part of political and social discourse. In Western capitals such as Paris, however, the threat is still perceived as something distant and abstract.
Concern among security structures has been further heightened by statements from NATO leaders. On December 11th, Alliance Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that Europe must prepare for a war on a scale experienced by previous generations. A few days later, the Chief of the UK Armed Forces, Air Chief Marshal Sir Richard Knighton, said that security cannot be left exclusively to military structures.
Such warnings also encounter political resistance. The leader of the French Communist Party, Fabien Roussel, called Mandon’s statements “intolerable war-mongering.” Despite this, many European governments have begun to respond along two main lines – the return of certain forms of military obligation and the strengthening of civil preparedness.
In December, Germany agreed on a new recruitment model. From 2026, all 18-year-olds will receive a questionnaire assessing their readiness for military service, while from 2027, 18-year-old men will undergo medical examinations. This creates a pool of potentially mobilizable individuals, which Defense Minister Boris Pistorius describes with the term Kriegstuchtigkeit, meaning “war readiness.”
French President Emmanuel Macron previously announced a ten-month paid, voluntary military service for young people aged 18 to 25, starting in 2026, while compulsory military service has not existed in that country since 1997. In Poland, Prime Minister Donald Tusk is considering military training for all adult men, although concrete proposals have not yet been presented. In all these cases, the emphasis is on strengthening the reserve force and deterring potential adversaries.
The German and French models are partly inspired by the Nordic countries. Finland and Norway have had compulsory military service for decades, and all Finnish men are called up at the age of 18. Sweden reintroduced mandatory registration for all men and women of that age in 2018 as part of its “total defense” strategy, while a smaller number are selected for 11 months of military service. Defense analysts believe that Germany will ultimately have to introduce compulsory service in order to meet its planned targets.
Europe’s response, however, remains uneven. Italy suspended conscription in 2005, and Defense Minister Guido Crosetto announced that in 2026 he may propose a law on voluntary reserve forces to compensate for a shortage of 30.000 to 40.000 soldiers. In Spain, defense spending is increasing, but only a limited increase in troop numbers is planned by 2029, without any debate on conscription. The UK, despite ambitious rearmament plans, also does not consider conscription, instead offering programs such as a one-year break for young people under 25.
Even more pronounced differences are visible in approaches to civil preparedness. The Nordic and Baltic countries, as well as Poland, have for years been developing the concept of “total defense.” Sweden organizes a “preparedness week” every year, and in 2024, sent a manual to every household stating that all citizens aged 16 to 70 are part of the defense system and obliged to serve in the event of war or a threat of war. The guide explains in detail what supplies should be kept at home and how to find civil defense shelters. Similar manuals also exist in Lithuania.
Sweden plans to increase investment in civil defense to 19.4 billion kronor by 2028, up from 2.7 billion in 2022.
“We are placing great emphasis on a whole-of-society approach,” said Minister for Civil Defense Carl Oskar Bohlin.
In most Western European countries, such programs hardly exist. The Netherlands distributed a brochure on emergency preparedness in November, including war, while France is focused on preparations for terrorist attacks. In Spain and Italy, public debate on civil preparedness for war is almost nonexistent.
A survey conducted in nine European countries and published in December further confirms the divisions. A high risk of war with Russia is seen by 77 percent of respondents in Poland, compared to 34 percent in Italy. Nevertheless, the majority of respondents in all countries agree on one thing – that their states are not prepared. On average, 69 percent of citizens believe that their country would not be able to defend itself against Russia, including 85 percent of Italians, 69 percent of Germans, 58 percent of Poles, and 51 percent of French respondents.
