The new United States (U.S.) National Security Strategy, signed by U.S. President Donald Trump, clearly shows a shift in focus from global engagement toward strictly defined U.S. interests, with the Western Balkans mentioned only marginally.
The President of the Atlantic Council of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Professor Dijana Gupta, points out that the document unequivocally sends the message that “America must come first.” This primarily refers to national security, the economy, the fight against drug cartels, and migration policy.
“The U.S. has helped many around the world throughout history, but this has often not been sufficiently appreciated. Donald Trump now wants others to feel what it looks like when the U.S. primarily takes care of itself and its citizens,” Gupta said.
According to her, the priority of the U.S. administration remains stopping major war hotspots in Ukraine and the Middle East. Despite this, she believes that the strategic partnership with Europe will not be called into question.
“Too many important interests connect the U.S. and Europe. In a multipolar world full of challenges, the security aspect remains in first place,” Gupta emphasizes.
The Western Balkans on the margins of the strategy
Military analyst Hamza Visca warns that the Western Balkans appear in the new U.S. strategy almost exclusively on the margins.
“Neither BiH nor the region as a whole is specifically covered by this document. We are mentioned mainly in the context of relations between Serbia and Kosovo. Everything else is directed toward the Western Hemisphere and U.S. economic interests,” Visca said.
Nevertheless, the document carries an important message: the U.S. may no longer be willing to intervene as it once did, but it remains ready to stabilize situations where there is potential for serious U.S. investment.
“If conditions are created for the entry of U.S. capital into BiH, that also means a willingness to protect that space, of course, where the interests of partner countries coincide with U.S. interests,” Visca points out.
He adds that BiH can draw a clear conclusion from this: the stronger the relations with the U.S. and the more open the economy, the more stable the security framework becomes. As an example, he cites the southern gas interconnection, as well as the potential for cooperation in the defense industry sector.
Geopolitical importance of the region
Gupta warns that the Western Balkans must remain firmly tied to Euro-Atlantic integrations.
“The region has no perspective outside NATO and the European Union (EU). The Balkans are strategically too important to be neglected. Integration is key to peace, the economy, and democracy,” she emphasizes.
Speaking about BiH, she stresses that it is a politically extremely complex state in which it is difficult to reach a consensus.
“BiH finds itself in a kind of political roundabout. Without strong support from the U.S. and the EU, it is difficult to achieve a more serious breakthrough. That is why it is crucial to build a policy of compromise and preserve peace,” she says.
Military-political analyst Nedzad Ahatovic believes that the change in the U.S. approach to NATO enlargement further complicates the path of BiH and other countries in the region toward membership in the Alliance.
“This opens space for strengthening the influence of other powers, primarily Turkey and Russia. The absence of a clear Euro-Atlantic perspective deepens internal divisions and strengthens forces that oppose European integration,” Ahatovic warns.
He notes that Turkey, alongside the sale of military equipment, including drones, is also strengthening its political influence in the region, while Russia and China already have a strong presence in the Balkans.
“Serbia is the largest purchaser of Russian and Chinese weapons in the region, while at the same time intensifying economic ties with China,” Ahatovic says.
The U.S. role in BiH remains crucial.
Security expert Vladimir Vuckovic believes that the U.S. role in BiH will not be called into question, regardless of changes in strategic documents.
“The U.S. will not withdraw from BiH. The Dayton Peace Agreement is one of the greatest U.S. foreign policy successes in modern history,” Vuckovic points out.
He adds that Washington’s complaints about the level of defense spending within NATO are not a threat to the Balkans, but an internal issue of the Alliance. Regardless of whether BiH enters NATO, he emphasizes, it is crucial to maintain a clear course toward the EU.
Vuckovic also recalls the importance of the EUFOR Althea mission. “The mission is capable of responding to all security challenges, and its role remains crucial,” he concludes.
Less expectation, more responsibility
Although the new National Security Strategy devotes little space to the Western Balkans, analysts say that the document sends a clear message: the U.S. will be present where there are stable institutional partners and a clear economic interest.
For BiH, this means less reliance on external engagement and more work on internal political consensus, as well as strengthening relations with Washington and Brussels.
“Where U.S. funds enter, the U.S. has no intention of losing them – but of protecting them,” Hamza Visca concludes.
