The German newspaper Bild reported that the Bundeswehr is preparing for a hybrid Russian attack on NATO’s eastern flank that could take place in February 2024, which would be a prelude to the expansion of the conflict.
Bild published citing a secret Bundeswehr document and stated that, according to the document, an escalation between NATO and Russia could occur as early as February 2024.
In a classified document (top secret – for official use only), the German Federal Ministry of Defense describes a potential “pathto conflict” between Russia and NATO. The actions of Russia and the West are described month by month, and would culminate in the deployment of hundreds of thousands of NATO troops and the inevitable start of war in the summer of 2025.
Bild outlines the scenario from the document, but refrains from revealing any information about the size and movement of NATO forces due to security concerns.
The Bundeswehr scenario, Alliance Defense 2025, begins in February 2024. Russia initiates another wave of mobilization and calls up an additional 200,000 individuals into the military. After that, the Kremlin launches a spring offensive in Ukraine, pushing back the Ukrainian army by June.
Russia’s at first covert and then increasingly open attack on the West begins in July. Cyber attacks and other forms of hybrid warfare are predicted, primarily in the Baltic states. A conflict ensues, which Russia uses as an excuse to launch large-scale military exercises on its territory and in Belarus.
According to the scenario, this situation could escalate in October if Russia deploys troops and medium-range missiles to Kaliningrad. Since December 2024, an artificially induced “border conflict” and “conflicts with numerous victims” have been taking place near the Suwalki corridor.
At a time when the United States (U.S.) may be left without a leader a few weeks after the election, Russia, with the support of Belarus, is repeating the 2014 invasion of Ukraine, but on NATO territory. In May 2025, NATO decides on containment measures, and on D-Day NATO deploys 300,000 military personnel to the eastern flank, including 30,000 soldiers from the Bundeswehr.
The scenario ends 30 days after D-Day. Whether NATO will contain Russia remains an open question.
