After the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) extended the validity of the Conflict Zone Information Bulletin relating to Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon and Kuwait, and after coordination through the EUROCONTROL network mechanism, the situation is stabilizing in operational terms, but remains geopolitically sensitive, the Bosnia and Herzegovina Air Navigation Services Agency (BHANSA) announced on Tuesday.
As they stated, recommendations to avoid the aforementioned airspaces remain in force, and a large number of companies continue to adjust or reduce operations towards the Middle East and Gulf region.
“The first effect we recorded was an increase in traffic due to the shifting and rerouting of flights that were already in the air at the time of the airspace closure. This initial wave of increased transit through Southeast Europe, including the airspace of Bosnia and Herzegovina, was short-lived and operationally fully manageable,” they emphasized.
They added that the second wave that followed was characterized by mass cancellations and suspensions of flights.
“As the number of canceled operations increased, the overall traffic level began to fall, which is also reflected in our airspace. In other words, although there was initially a slight increase in transit, the overall effect on the network is now a decrease in traffic volume,” the statement said.
As they point out, BHANSA did not have to increase operational configurations compared to the planned capacities for this period, the increase from the first wave was served in the standard configuration, and the current level of traffic does not require additional traffic regulations or extraordinary capacities.
Operational stability remains complete, they said.
BHANSA added that such geopolitical circumstances affect not only routes, but also the perception of safety and economic trends: rising oil prices increase the operating costs of carriers, extended routes mean higher fuel consumption and lower profitability, ticket prices increase and demand begins to weaken.
In such circumstances, as they point out, some passengers postpone or cancel trips, which in the long term can lead to a general decline in air traffic, not only regionally, but also globally.
“We saw two clear effects – first a short-term increase due to rerouting, and then a drop in total traffic due to mass cancellations. BHANSA absorbed both scenarios without any disruption in service provision. Our system remains stable and ready, but a longer-term escalation would inevitably have negative effects on the entire aviation industry,” said BHANSA director Davorin Primorac.
BHANSA says that the current situation in the airspace of Bosnia and Herzegovina is stable, operational capacities are sufficient and safety is not compromised.
“However, extended geopolitical disturbances have wider economic consequences for our industry, including a potential drop in demand and a reduction in total traffic in the coming period. BHANSA will continue to closely monitor the development of the situation and act in a timely manner, in coordination with EUROCONTROL and European regulatory authorities,” they said.
