The topic of the latest Radio Free Europe (RFE) discussion was what Russia’s intentions are in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). The interlocutors were Dimitar Bechev, assistant professor at Oxford University, and Bodo Weber, senior associate at the Council for the Democratization of Politics in Berlin.
Omer Karabeg: Lately, especially after the beginning of the Ukrainian war, Russia has been trying to strengthen its influence in BiH. Why is BiH important to Russia at the moment?
Dimitar Bechev: Russia views the Balkans as an area of instability. Russia is looking for the weak points of the West, and if such an opportunity arises in the Balkans, she will use it. And BiH is such a place for Russia.
Bodo Weber: Nothing is so important to Putin except himselfand Russia and the spread of Russian influence in the world. In that context, Milorad Dodik has been a natural ally of Russia for 15 years, as someone who has been causing problems for the West. Thanks to Dodik, Russia has the opportunity to undermine the West and expand its influence in the Western Balkans, without costing it economically. I would say that what Russia is doing now is just a continuation of the previous policy in a new context – the context of the war in Ukraine.
Omer Karabeg: Milorad Dodik openly sided with Russia in the Ukrainian war. He calls Russia’s aggression against Ukraine a special military operation, sharply criticizing the West. Heinvited the Russian Ambassador to BiH, Igor Kalabukhov, to speak at the session of the National Assembly of the Republika Srpska (NARS) these days. He also boasted that he would meet with Russian President Putin in Petrograd on June 17th, and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said that he was a friend of Russia. What does Russia expect from Milorad Dodik?
Dimitar Bechev: I think he expects symbolic support because RS is not a factor. Dodik was invited to the economic forum in St. Petersburg, where he will allegedly meet with Putin, but no serious country will come to that forum. I read that the Talibansfrom Afghanistan will also be there. It is important for Russia to show that it is not in isolation. After all, Russia has always supported Dodik and that is why he now needs to show that he is loyal to her.
Bodo Weber: Ever since the war in Ukraine began, there have been fears that Putin could use Dodik to open a second front in Europe by pushing Dodik into RS secession, which he launched late last year with a decision to transfer key state powers from BiH to the RS. Dodik is procrastinating, so we don’t know when he could really withdraw that move. But it is a danger that has been threatening for a long time.
It all depends on what Putin is up to, and if Putin decides to go for secession, Dodik could hardly resist. On the basis of information from Western sources, my colleagues and I announced in 2014 that Putin encouraged Dodik to embark on an adventure of secession a few weeks after the illegal annexation of Crimea, but Vucic allegedly prevented that because he was not ready to sacrifice Serbia’s stability because of that adventure.
Failed scenario?
Omer Karabeg: Mr. Weber mentioned the decision on the transfer of state competencies to the RS, which was made in December last year. There was speculation that the decision was made in agreement with Russia and that the secession of RSshould have followed. That scenario was allegedly not realized due to the outbreak of the Ukrainian war. Is there any truth in that?
Dimitar Bechev: I don’t know. I can’t speculate. However, it seems to me that Dodik is trying to gain as much sovereignty as possible without going to secession. Because that scenario carries risks. I do not believe that he would have the support of Serbia and would remain in isolation. I don’t know if Russia would be able to help.
Dodik uses every opportunity to get as much power as possible, but I don’t think there will be any secession, there will be no famous referendum that he has been talking about for years. I think it’s his game. He goes a little forward, then moves back. And that is why I doubt that there was a decision to go for the most radical move. Because the price of secession would be too high. But in the current situation of the war in Ukraine, Dodik has room for maneuver in order to gain even more competencies and even more power. I think that’s his strategy.
Bodo Weber: If we look at the events of the last year and a half, it seems to me that according to all available information, Dodik is really serious about the secession. He was encouraged, unfortunately, by the very problematic role of the United States (U.S.) and European Union (EU) officials in the negotiations on the so-called election law reform, which were a kind of BiH replay of previous negotiations between Serbia and Kosovo on the exchange of territories.
Omer Karabeg: Is Russia’s goal to open a front in the Western Balkans along with Ukraine, so it chose BiH as the country where it could most easily provoke a conflict that would spread to the entire region?
Dimitar Bechev: I do not believe there is such a goal because Russia is now one hundred percent focused on Ukraine. I think that Russia does not have its own strategy toward the Balkans. In the Balkans, they sometimes think that Moscow has a big plan, but it seems to me that it does not exist. Initiatives often come from the region, from local players. In addition, Russia’s potential allies in the region do not have the capacity to wage war. Maybe informational and propaganda, but not a real war because it is risky and costs a lot – both politically and economically, and socially. And that is why I think that there will be no war conflicts in the Balkans or in BiH. But that does not mean that the region is in a good situation. There is political instability and mistrust between communities. Thus, Russia has the ability to influence the region without using military force.
Bodo Weber: I think the possibility of opening a front in the Western Balkans, unfortunately, exists. Whether it has been reduced by the closure of airspace due to the war in Ukraine, which makes it impossible for members of the Wagner Group or some other paramilitary formation from Russia to arrive in the Western Balkans – that is another question. We saw what happened to Lavrov when he was preparing to visit Belgrade. The main question is what President Putin’s plans are. It seems that at this moment, Putin has no interest in spreading the conflict outside Ukraine and attacking the EU more directly. But that doesn’t mean it’s not an issue we’ll have to deal with in the future, RSE writes.
