In Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), during the first six months of this year, 10.831 children were born, 2.79 percent fewer than in the same period last year, official data show.
At the same time, in the first six months of this year, 18.162 people died, 5.14% more than in the first six months of 2014.
According to data published by the Agency for Statistics of BiH, during the first six months of this year, 6.129 marriages were registered in BiH, which represents a decrease of 4.13% compared to the same period in 2024. During the first six months, 1.009 marriages were divorced, 5.44% fewer compared to the same period last year.
How Croatia and Serbia stand
The decline in birth rates can no longer be viewed only as statistics, but as a serious problem that has affected almost all countries both in our region and globally.
The Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia reported that in the first five months of this year, Serbia recorded a negative natural increase of 18.513 people.
“In the period January-May 2025, the number of live births was 22.351. Compared to the same period of the previous year, when the number of live births was 24.114, this represents a decrease of 1.763, or 7.3 percent.”
Last year in Croatia, 32.069 children were born, the lowest in the last decade, Croatian media reported, noting that negative trends are most pronounced in the Slavonian and Lika counties, while coastal regions are rare examples of migratory growth, mainly due to the immigration of foreign workers.
According to data published by the American independent research organization Pew Research Center, South Korea is the country with the lowest fertility rate in 2025 (0.75), while the estimated fertility rate in China is 1.0 births per woman.
Currently, Europe and North America have the lowest fertility rates in the world, with 1.4 and 1.6 births per woman, respectively.
Africa still holds
Unlike the global average, Africa remains the region with the highest fertility rates, estimated at 4.0 this year. However, a gradual decline toward 2.0 is expected by the end of the century. It is also predicted that by 2100, women under 25 will have a much smaller share of births than women aged 25-34 in every region. In every region except Africa, they will also constitute a smaller share of births than women older than 34.
While countries like Africa and India still record relatively high fertility rates, most developed countries face challenges of population aging and a declining working-age population.
Several European countries, four years ago, already spent more than 3.0% of GDP on family programs such as child allowances, subsidized childcare, and tax relief. For example, Poland spent about 3.6% of its GDP on family benefits, including 2.5% on child-related cash transfers. Iceland allocated about 3.8% of its GDP – the highest share in the OECD. The United States (U.S.) spends about 1.0% of its GDP, and Japan spends 2.4% of its GDP.
Analysts suggest that the cause of declining birth rates is not singular but can be found in delayed parenthood, high costs of living, housing, and education that often discourage couples from starting families, as well as social changes. Health issues should not be excluded, as many couples are unable to fulfill their role as parents. It is estimated that about 10-15% of couples of reproductive age (15-49 years) face difficulties with conception.
WHO (World Health Organization) and studies such as those in one of the world’s most prestigious and influential medical and health journals state that fertility problems exist in all regions of the world and that causes vary.
What the experts say
As Amer Osmic, sociology professor at the Faculty of Political Science in Sarajevo, explained in an interview, the Balkan region will undergo significant structural changes due to certain migratory movements of the population toward Western countries (for work or other reasons), and the lack of long-term strategies related to population dynamics and economic development will have consequences.
“According to data from international organizations that conduct assessments, if the current trend continues, BiH will have 1.5 million inhabitants by 2070, of which 40 percent will be older than 65 years. Considering the African continent, the average age in those countries is between 15 and 18 years; here, the average age is 43 years according to estimates, and 39.5 according to the census,” said Osmic, Forbes writes.
