Japanese people will have the same surname in 500 years unless married couples are allowed to use separate surnames, a new study suggests as part of a campaign to update a civil code dating back to the late 1800s.
A study led by Hiroshi Yoshida, an economics professor at Tohoku University, predicts that if Japan continues to insist that couples choose one surname, by 2531 every Japanese person will be known as “Sato.”
Yoshida acknowledged that his projections were based on several assumptions, but said the idea was to use the numbers to explain the potential effects of the current system on Japanese society and to draw attention to the issue.
“If everyone becomes Sato, they may have to address us by first name or numbers,” he said, according to Mainichi. ”I don’t think that would be a good world to live in.”
Sato is already at the top of the list of Japanese surnames, accounting for 1.5% of the total population, according to a March 2023 survey, followed by the surname Suzuki.
Some social media users mistakenly assumed the study, which was first mentioned on Monday (April 1st) but published in March, was an April Fool’s Day joke, but Yoshida says he just wanted to give people time to think.
The Sato nation “will not only be inconvenient but also undermine the dignity of the individual,” he said, adding that the trend would also lead to the loss of family and regional heritage.
According to Yoshida’s calculations, the proportion of Japanese people with the surname Sato increased 1.0083 times from 2022 to 2023. Assuming the rate remains constant and no changes to the surname law, roughly half of Japan’s population will have that surname in 2446, which rise to 100% in 2531.
Couples in Japan have to choose which surname to share when they get married, but in 95% of cases, the woman changes her surname. However, the picture would be different if the Japanese government, under increasing pressure, allowed married couples to use separate surnames.
The study also includes an alternative scenario extrapolated from a 2022 survey by the Japan Confederation of Trade Unions, in which 39.3% of 1,000 employees aged 20 to 59 said they wanted to share a surname even if they had the option of using separate ones. Under these circumstances, Yoshida, whose study was commissioned by the ”Think Name” Project and other organizations that want to legalize the ability to choose a surname, predicts that by 2531, only 7.96% of the Japanese population will be named Sato. Groups calling for changes to the law on married surnames hope their campaign will get a boost from the prospect that those with surnames Suzuki, Watanabe, and Yoshida – the 11th most common surname – could one day disappear.
Although the government has allowed maiden names to appear alongside married names on passports, driver’s licenses, and residence certificates, Japan remains the only country in the world that requires spouses to use the same surname.
Conservative members of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) say changing the law would “undermine” family unity and cause confusion among children.
