Tensions between India and Pakistan have dramatically increased after Islamabad closed its airspace to Indian aircraft and threatened to consider any attempt by New Delhi to alter the distribution of water from the Indus River to Pakistan as an act of war.
The crisis escalated after a deadly attack in a tourist area of Kashmir in which 25 Indian citizens and one Nepali were killed. India immediately accused Pakistan of supporting cross-border terrorism, which Islamabad categorically denies. In response, New Delhi ordered the return of its citizens from Pakistan, while Islamabad expelled Indian diplomats, including military advisors.
On Thursday, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif held an emergency meeting of the national security council, after which it was decided to suspend trade with India, close land borders, and cancel all visas for Indian citizens. Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar warned that any Indian military move would trigger a reciprocal response, recalling the dangerous crisis of February 2019.
The most serious sign of worsening relations is India’s decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty – one of the longest-standing international river-sharing agreements, signed in 1960 with the mediation of the World Bank. The Indian government claims Pakistan is using attacks as a means of political pressure, while Islamabad responds that any interference with water flow would be considered an act of war.
“Any attempt to stop or redirect water that belongs to Pakistan will be seen as an act of war and will be met with full force,” stated the Pakistani government.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his first address after the attack, declared that India would find and punish all those responsible. “I say to the whole world: we will find every terrorist and their accomplice,” said Modi, who has called a meeting with opposition leaders for Thursday to inform them of the government’s responses.
Police in Kashmir have issued warrants for three suspected militants, two of whom are Pakistani citizens. Rewards are being offered for information leading to their arrest.
India has already closed a key land crossing with Pakistan and suspended the issuance of visas under the exemption for Pakistani citizens.
Kashmir has been the subject of a decades-long dispute between India and Pakistan, who have controlled different parts of the territory since 1947 but both claim the entire region. The latest crisis could jeopardize the fragile peace between the two nuclear powers and open a new phase of serious instability in the region.
