Professor Dr. Jasmin Ahic, the Dean of the Faculty of Criminology, Criminology, and Security Studies at the University of Sarajevo (UNSA), commented in an interview the reports of the appearance and activities of a Russian pro-war blogger named “Rybar” in the territory of the Bosnian-Herzegovinian (BiH) entity Republika Srpska (RS), as well as holding a multi-day “education” session in Serbia and the RS entity.
All-encompassing campaign
At the same time, research conducted has shown that in addition to the extremely negative actions of the President of the Republic of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic, and the President of the BiH entity RS, Milorad Dodik, significant contributions to escalating tensions in BiH and the region regarding the announcement of the Resolution on the Srebrenica genocide before the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in the last month or two have come from the propaganda of Russian media outlets, Sputnik and RT Balkan, which are under direct control of Moscow. Their influence is noticeable at every turn, providing distorted interpretations of the Srebrenica Resolution in an attempt to provoke unrest and sharp reactions.
“It is crucial for both the expert community and the general public to be fully aware of the ‘special’ war in the media space, especially on social media. Russia is conducting a comprehensive campaign against all those who support civilizational values and fight against malign influences that undermine peace and stability worldwide, with the Western Balkans being a special target due to its potential for destabilization,” warns the distinguished BiH security expert.
In this regard, Professor Ahic added, every activity, especially when publicly announced, for example, on X (formerly Twitter), is a significant alarm signal for both security intelligence communities and all of us.
“High-quality and professional media analyses, such as yours, are crucial instruments in combating such narratives and campaigns. We live in a cyber age, and exposing the goals of such narratives and campaigns is of paramount importance for the resilience of our states and societies as a whole,” concluded Professor Ahic.
What does Russia want?
It is worth noting that the actions of the Russian Federation in BiH, especially in the context of the upcoming Resolution, should be viewed in a broader context.
The activities of Russian state media in Europe are regarded by experts as part of the Russian strategy of “sharp power,” aimed at establishing informational influence in this part of the world. Hence, the propaganda of Sputnik Serbia and RT Balkan (also operating from Belgrade) can be seen as part of Russian “hybrid strategies,” which NATO has been warning about for almost a decade.
Unfortunately, this aligns with recent claims by James Stavridis, retired NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe, who warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin “is spreading propaganda and fanning religious conflicts in Kosovo and BiH to divert NATO to another front, away from Ukraine.” This is also consistent with previous warnings by Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the President of Ukraine, that Russia will “do everything to destabilize the Balkans.”
“Russia could create new crises in the Balkans and Moldova to divert world attention from the war in Ukraine,” said the Ukrainian president on November 15th, 2023.
He reiterated these warnings recently in Tirana.
Moscow is trying “to open a new front in the Balkans,” but to achieve this, it does not need to send its army to the region, as noted in March 2024 by Ivana Stradner and Mark Montgomery of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in their analysis. They warn that “Russia only needs to rely on Serbia to incite violence and instability, counting on NATO to falter.”
