The “America First” doctrine shifts the focus from global engagement toward strictly defined United States (U.S.) interests, in which the Western Balkans are barely mentioned.
The President of the Atlantic Council of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Professor Dijana Gupta, notes that the new U.S. National Security Strategy clearly makes it known that “America must come first.” This primarily includes national security, the economy, the fight against drug cartels, and migration policy.
“The U.S. has throughout history helped many around the world, but this was often not sufficiently appreciated. Now Donald Trump wants others to feel what it looks like when America first takes care of itself and its citizens,” she says.
The priority of the U.S. administration, Gupta adds, remains stopping major war hotspots in Ukraine and the Middle East. Nevertheless, the strategic partnership with Europe, in her view, remains strong.
“Too many important interests bind the U.S. and Europe for these relations to be called into question. In a multipolar world full of challenges, the security aspect remains paramount,” Gupta said.
The Western Balkans in the U.S. Strategy
Military analyst Hamza Visca emphasizes that the Western Balkans appear only marginally in the new U.S. strategy.
“In principle, we are not particularly covered by that strategy, neither BiH nor the region. We are mostly mentioned in the context of relations between Kosovo and Serbia. Everything else is focused on the Western Hemisphere and U.S. economic interests,” Visca said.
However, he highlights an important message of the document: “The U.S. may not be ready to intervene as they once were, but they are ready to calm situations and act where an environment can be created for serious U.S. investment. If conditions are created for U.S. funds to enter BiH, that also means they are ready to defend that space, where the interests of partner countries coincide with U.S. interests.”
According to Visca, BiH can draw a clear conclusion from this – the deeper the relations with the U.S. and the more open the economy, the stronger the security umbrella.
“We hope that the Southern Gas Interconnection will be one of those examples. But we also need to think about other areas, such as the defense industry. Such cooperation would enable capacity development and attract U.S. capital as well,” Visca says.
The Balkans as a geopolitical point and BiH’s responsibility
Returning the focus to the broader picture, Gupta emphasizes that the Western Balkans must remain within Euro-Atlantic frameworks: “The region has no perspective if it remains outside NATO and the European Union (EU). The Balkans are strategically too important to be forgotten. For peace, the economy, and democracy, integration is key.”
When it comes to BiH, she warns that it is a politically complex state in which it is difficult to achieve consensus.
“BiH is in a political ’roundabout’ and can hardly make more serious progress without the support of the U.S. and the EU. That is why our politicians must build policies of compromise and mutual respect. Preserving peace is the most important thing,” Gupta notes.
The importance of Western support for the Balkans is also emphasized by military and political analyst Nedzad Ahatovic. He believes that a change in the U.S. approach to NATO enlargement will, for BiH and other potential Western Balkan aspirants, “make the political path toward the Alliance more difficult.”
He therefore warns: “This could strengthen the influence of other powers in the Balkans, such as Turkey and Russia, because the lack of a clear membership perspective deepens internal divisions and encourages forces that oppose European integration.”
Ahatovic supports his claims with the fact that “Turkey, through the sale of weapons (drones) to Western Balkan states, is simultaneously strengthening its political influence in the region,” while Russia, and also China, as the main U.S. rival in global relations, already have their own “outposts” in the region.
“Serbia is the largest purchaser of Russian and Chinese weapons in the Western Balkans, while at the same time Belgrade is also pushing economic ties with China,” Ahatovic says.
The U.S. role in BiH: “It will not withdraw”
For security expert Vladimir Vuckovic, it is crucial that the U.S. role in BiH remains long-term, regardless of the broader guidelines outlined in the Strategy.
“The U.S. will not give up its key role in BiH. We must not forget that the Dayton Peace Agreement is one of the greatest foreign policy successes of the U.S. in modern history,” Vuckovic says.
He recalls that Washington had previously complained about insufficient investment in defense within NATO, but that this is not a threat to the Balkans, rather an internal problem of the Alliance.
“Regardless of whether BiH joins NATO or not, an issue on which there is currently disagreement within BiH itself, it is important that BiH maintains its course toward the EU,” he states.
Vuckovic also recalls the importance of the EUFOR Althea mission.
“The mission can adequately respond to all challenges and threats that might arise. Its role remains crucial,” Vuckovic believes.
Fewer expectations, but more opportunities
The new National Security Strategy does not give much space to the Western Balkans, but it sends clear signals. The U.S. will be present where there are stable institutional partners and a clear economic interest.
According to analysts, for BiH, this is a message that it should rely less on external engagement and work more on domestic consensus and strengthening ties with Washington, but also Brussels. Because, as Hamza Visca says, where U.S. funds enter, the U.S. has no intention of losing them, but of protecting them, Klix.ba writes.
