In the first reaction to the decision of the Government of the Republika Srpska (RS) to terminate cooperation with the United States (U.S.) and United Kingdom (UK) embassies in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) at the request of Milorad Dodik due to the UK announcement of sending ammunition with depleted uranium to Ukraine and what they call their anti-Dayton activities, experts see another show for the public motivated by the relationship with Russia, but which serves Dodik for better positioning and possible escalation of the situation in BiH.
Speaking to journalists on Thursday, at a time when the Government of RS made a decision to end official contacts with two important embassies in BiH, entity president Milorad Dodik said, for the first time since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, that he made a decision related to the events in this the country. He said that he would break off relations with the U.S. and UK embassies because the UK announced sending weapons with depleted uranium to the Ukrainian army.
Ivana Stradner, an expert on the Balkans, an author at the Financial Times, the Kyiv Post, and a member of the Barish Center for Media Integrity of the U.S. Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, said that it is significant that the message about the severance of relations came just at the time when Russia accused the UK of sending ammunition.
“This is a typical information operation from Moscow that [Vladimir] Putin uses every year in March, on the anniversary of the NATO bombing, to show that NATO is to blame for the increase in cancer in Serbia. This year, that strategy was put into a larger framework with the UK and does not only target the Balkans but is an international information operation that is connected with disinformation for biological weapons,” concluded Stradner.
From the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine until recently, Dodik insisted that RS had a neutral attitude towards the conflict and that the whole of BiH should have that attitude as well.
The latest decision goes in the direction of moving away from the West in that context, according to Veldin Kadic from Security Studies at the Faculty of Political Sciences of the University of Sarajevo (UNSA).
“Dodik is perceived as one of the most important political allies of the Kremlin in this part of the world, who has significant political power, and from time to time it is necessary to confirm such a perception. Previously, he carefully balanced in order not to completely jeopardize his political position, but considering that the political situation in the whole of BiH has become more complicated, new “radical steps” seem necessary in the light of strengthening his own political position. I wouldn’t say that this decision significantly changes his mostly neutral attitude towards the war in Ukraine, but rather creates a distance from the Western international community,” said Kadic.
Stradner is not surprised by Dodik’s decision, which she sees as a performance for the domestic public, but emphasizes that the situation in BiH can escalate and that this is what Moscow wants.
Moreover, she believes that the more Putin loses in Ukraine, the more he will use “hybrid tactics to create chaos in the Balkans” in order to distract attention from the invasion.
“Although Dodik has been relatively calm lately, I believe that BiH will escalate again. Putin does not have the capacity to help Dodik militarily, but it is not even necessary because, with paramilitary structures, it is not difficult to create chaos. Putin is playing for the long haul, and Montenegro, Kosovo, and BiH are very sensitive, and through proxy players, Moscow will continue to escalate so that the West spends its energy and resources on calming the situation,” stated Stadner.
The Embassy of the U.S. in BiH reacted to the decision of the Government of RS with a statement in which, among other things, it is stated that this decision is “another step on a dangerous path”.
“It is the path to isolation and authoritarian rule. That path does not bring good to the citizens of RS,” the U.S. Embassy said, adding that the U.S. will continue to help the citizens of the entity, but that it will not help a government that uses authoritarian tactics against its own people, Detektor reports.
E.Dz.
