It has been a tough year for BIH. The economic and financial crisis, coupled with the lack of progress on the political agenda and shared vision for the future of the country, would have been sufficient challenges for any country in their own right. The outpouring of citizen protests at the beginning of 2014 left no doubt in anyone’s mind that Bosnian citizens are acutely feeling the pain.
Then, just as the economy in Europe and BiH showed a glimmer of optimism in the first quarter of 2014, came the floods – on a scale not seen since records began over a 100 years ago. They were predictable (and had actually been predicted by then-Yugoslav scientists) and perhaps preventable given the awareness in former Yugoslavia of the complexities of river basin and flood management. Unfortunately, little could and has been done since the breakup of the state, as all newly independent countries had different priorities and precious little resources to invest in resilience building, river management and disaster preparedness. BIH for well-known reasons ended up with probably the weakest system of disaster preparedness, complex governance and a lack of human and financial resources to deal with natural emergencies.
In May 2014 the system simply buckled under the ferocious assault of nature. Years of neglect for river maintenance and flood control, lack of funding for civil defense and military preparedness needs, deforestation, post-war resettlement of IDPs and refugees in areas known to be flood-plains, slow progress in demining and inadequate special planning – all combined to make these floods a highly complex emergency requiring a well-coordinated, multi-sectoral, professional response, impossible to achieve given the state of affairs.
We are where we are. The big question is, what have we learned from all of this and what will we do in the short, medium and long term, both nationally and regionally to limit effects of natural disasters and build resilience into our economies and our communities?
The bad news is that these extreme weather events will happen with more frequency in the future – the climate models have been tested and the climate is changing. Another piece of bad news is that the next flood, forest fire, snowfall or industrial disaster might be just around the corner. The good news is that the knowledge, science and methods for disaster preparedness are out there and have been successfully implemented by many states, rich and poor, which have designed systems of adapting the economy, preparing the population and minimizing the worst effects from disasters when they occur. Relatively inexpensive preparedness measures, consistently and intelligently applied and funded over several budgetary cycles can make a dramatic difference between devastation and minor inconvenience.
Some things are urgent: dealing with the consequences of the flood, especially where people who lost their homes and livelihoods are concerned is one. Reforming our civil defense and disaster preparedness system is another. Clearing the rivers and the tributaries, reinforcing embankments and putting up additional minimal defenses is certainly a third. We have maybe 4 months to do this.
by Yuri Afanasiev, UN Resident Coordinator
(Source: UNDP)
