Prominent political analyst and senior associate of the Council for Democratization Policy, Kurt Bassuener spoke about Dodik’s latest attacks on the country, the reactions of Western countries, as well as Russia’s influence on relations in our country.
The resistance
Milorad Dodik has been blocking state institutions of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) for months and announcing a unilateral takeover of state competencies. How persistent do you think he will be in his project?
”I think that there is a deep sense of self-satisfaction in many areas – in the western capitals, but also among many citizens of BiH – regarding Dodik’s intentions. It is important to remember that he has been consistently rewarded over the last 15 years, managing to greatly weaken the state with minimal international resistance. I believe he is serious and in fact, he is probably surprised that he has gone so far without encountering clear resistance from the European Union (EU) and the United States (U.S.). There were only five EU members that expressed their willingness to implement EU restrictive measures against Dodik. According to Secretary Blinken’s letter, the sanctions appear to sound like a conditional threat.”
Fear of a boycott
To which extent is Russia behind Dodik’s moves?
”Russia has consistently supported Dodik’s escalations. Moscow can only benefit from the realization of his agenda since it shows the weakness and indecision of the West on the threshold of NATO and the EU, despite their dominant structural position in BiH.”
Why is the election law the first goal, and not stopping Dodik?
”In the first place, they fear the threat of Covic and Dodik to boycott or prevent the 2022 general elections. They think that would be proof of the defeat of Western politics here, although I think it has already failed. In my opinion, the calculation of the U.S. and the EU is that these leaders are already well-known players, they can put pressure on them (anti-corruption measures, etc.), and that would guarantee their pacification. I think that is extremely cynical.”
Bonn powers
To what extent does Christian Schmidt have the ability to act at all in the current circumstances?
”I think that his statement on the Bonn powers “in the drawer” was aimed at emphasizing that he has them and that he will use them. However, given the policies of the EU and the U.S., as well as the lack of international coercive force in BiH, it is difficult to be convinced that he will apply them.”
Possibility of conflict
How real is the threat of armed conflict in BiH?
”It is real. I want to be clear. I think that the vast majority of citizens in BiH of all nations do not want any kind of conflict. But, even the last time, the war was not started from the bottom. The conflict is coming from higher levels in BiH and the Balkans. That is why the only guarantee for peace is an external factor – the EU, or preferably after the NATO summit in Riga, NATO itself.”
German politics
Former British Foreign Secretary William Hague mentioned in a recent article on BiH that Serbian nationalism in the Balkans and Dodik’s destructive actions were made possible thanks to Germany’s indolent attitude. What do you think about that?
”The way in which Germany nominated Schmidt – without any of its own strategy or real consultations with the allies to develop a new strategy – did great damage. It is part of the reason we’re here now. But, I believe that Berlin’s main problem with BiH politics is not related to the Russians now; they simply do not have enough expertise, nor the readiness for their policy to be firm and leading.”
E.Dz.
Source: Avaz