”As today in Ukraine, the well-armed army undertook in the former Yugoslavia what it saw as its special operation against Slovenia. It was an introduction to a protracted war,” Deutsche Welle writes in its analysis, which compares the similarities and differences between the two wars.
War goals
Russia wanted to quickly “decapitate” Ukraine and establish a puppet regime. The attempt failed. Instead, the Russian military is now waging war across the country.
Once upon a time in Yugoslavia, the goal of the war changed in a few days and weeks: first, the army tried to keep the federal state together by force. When that failed, the war began in Croatia, and soon after in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), for the territorially competitive mass of the failing federation. Finally, in 1998/1999 one “liberation army” fought for Kosovo’s independence. Goals changed, the war remained.
Strategies
In Bosnia, first the Serb and later the Croat side tried to create “ethnically clean” areas. In Ukraine, the Russian army aims to subjugate the entire country and occupy at least a large part of that country. It is about the state, not the people. “Ethnic cleansing” is not planned. It could not be carried out in Ukraine, which is 12 times larger than BiH.
Siege
The capital of BiH, Sarajevo, was under siege by Bosnian Serbs from March 1992 to September 1995. The goal was not to occupy and expel the population, as in some smaller Bosnian towns. That city served as a hostage or as a security for the later exchange of territories. For this purpose, Sarajevo did not have to be starved or completely cut off from water and electricity supply; after two months of complete isolation, the city was irregularly supplied with the most necessary things by an air bridge.
Several Ukrainian cities that are much larger than Sarajevo are also under siege – for example, Mariupol, which has the same population as BiH’s capital, is only the 10th largest Ukrainian city. Unlike Sarajevo, the occupation of Ukrainian cities is planned. This could mean that the situation there will be even worse than in Sarajevo – in order to force surrender.
Protection of civilians
After several months of the war, first in Croatia and then in BiH, the United Nations (UN) stationed blue helmet units in BiH. They helped maintain the infrastructure in that country, made the roads passable, monitored the situation on the battlefield, and could warn of danger. But they could not protect the civilian population from shelling and expulsions. In Ukraine, it is difficult to imagine such units.
From a humanitarian point of view, UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) Director Strohmeyer does not consider this a shortcoming. Without peacekeepers, who easily become the subject of tactical manipulation by the warring parties, humanitarian organizations can act more convincingly neutral.
”The basis of humanitarian work is to exchange very detailed information with the armies participating in the war. When a convoy is announced, then there is a precise period, which may have to be moved, but which is then respected.”
The fact that two professional armies are involved in the conflict in Ukraine makes everything easier, there are no rebel gangs as is often the case in Africa or Syria.
Politics and the world public
In BiH, the UN Security Council has established a no-fly zone – as required by the Ukrainian government. The reason was not that airstrikes in the war played such a big role. No-fly zones are traditionally considered to be entering military intervention. Not only flights but also the firing of projectiles from the ground into the air are prohibited, which then entails aerial bombardment of positions on the ground.
But more effective than actual intervention in the Yugoslav wars of the 1990s were debates about it. Any threat of military intervention against the attackers was for the defending party an incentive to escalate the war and make such an intervention probable.
