After several hours of silence following Iran’s missile and drone attack on Israel, Russia released its first official reaction: The Foreign Ministry expressed what it said was Moscow’s “extreme concern” over “the latest dangerous escalation in the region.”
There may be some truth to that statement, as analysts say an all-out war in the Middle East would not be in the interest of President Vladimir Putin’s government. For now, however, it seems more likely that the Kremlin is delighted with the development, which could benefit Putin in several ways, most of which are directly related to Russia’s war against Ukraine.
“The Middle East’s entry into uncharted territory (short of full-blown war) is the best thing that could happen to Putin right now,” Hanna Notte, a senior associate in the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, wrote on Platform X.
Here’s why.
First, it diverts attention from the war in Ukraine at a crucial time when Kyiv is facing major challenges on the front line, which could worsen in the coming weeks and months, and Russia is striking again with ferocity at the country’s energy infrastructure and bombing cities including Kharkiv and Odesa.
‘Challenge Opportunity’
For the Kremlin, the potential benefits to be gained from an Iranian attack on Israel are broad and quite specific. In the more than two years since it launched an all-out invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin has increasingly portrayed the war there as part of a broader confrontation in which it says Russia is defending itself and the rest of the world against the West, especially the United States (U.S.).
In this context, Iran’s attack on Israel could play into the Kremlin’s propaganda, giving Russia new material it can use to push its narrative about the war in Ukraine and its showdown with the West.
“There is a certain perception among the Axis powers – Russia, Iran, North Korea and China – that the West has weakened. And that American positions and policies can no longer guarantee the security of its allies,” said Ihor Semyvolos, director of the Association for Middle Eastern Studies in Kyiv.
As a result, the Iranian attack gives Russia and like-minded states “a chance to challenge this unipolar world that Putin, Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei have talked about a lot,” he said.
Instability in the Middle East “diverts Western attention and resources from Ukraine and NATO’s eastern flank, creates insecurity among the U.S. regional allies and further fuels a broader, global perception that the West cannot pacify the region, thereby reinforcing perceptions of the war in Gaza,” Notte told on April 15th.
“In short, such instability is fueling a global perception that the war in Ukraine is just another war among many, one problem among a host of problems — a perception that the Kremlin can only appreciate,” she said.
Looking for an imbalance
Regardless of the outcome of the U.S. aid dispute, Putin may see an Iranian attack on Israel as an opportunity to increase Moscow’s influence in the Middle East, where restoring power that has been drastically weakened since the collapse of the Soviet Union appears to have been very important to Putin since he came to power a quarter of a century ago.
Russia’s war against Ukraine has strained its ties with Iran, which supported the attack by providing drones and the technology to manufacture them, but Putin has courted Iran’s regional enemies for years, including Israel and Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, as part of his efforts to increase the influence of Moscow in the Middle East and weaken the influence of the U.S., Slobodna Evropa writes.
E.Dz.
