Fewer children are being born in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) and the population is getting married less and less, this is the conclusion that can be drawn from the latest analyses. According to the data of the BiH Agency for Statistics, 11,142 live births were registered in our country during the first six months of this year, which in comparison to the same period in 2023 indicates a decrease in the number of live births by 2.70 percent. In BiH, the number of deaths has also decreased. In the first six months of this year, 17,274 people died, which is 1.92 percent less than the same period last year. As previously reported, global trends when it comes to the fertility index are also spilling over into our area. And what should certainly be of concern is the fact that the decline in the birth rate also means an aging population, which ultimately means a smaller workforce.
Forty percent of the population will be over 65 years old
One of the reasons for the decline in the birth rate that should be kept in mind is the outflow of the population from BiH. According to data from the Union for Sustainable Return and Integration of BiH, five years ago (in 2019) 56,987 people left BiH, in 2020 that number increased by almost 30,000 and amounted to 85,000, so the conclusion last year was that about 600,000 people emigrated from BiH during the last ten years.
“According to the data of international organizations, which make estimates, if the current trend continues, BiH will have one and a half million inhabitants in 2070, of which 40 percent will be over 65 years old. If we take into account the African continent, the average age in those countries is between 15 and 18 years, in our country the average age is 43 years according to estimates, according to the population census 39.5”, said Amer Osmic, professor of sociology at the Faculty of Political Sciences in Sarajevo, adding: The demographic Balkan area will change significantly in terms of structure, precisely because of these particular migration movements, because this area is characterized by a high degree of migration movements towards Western countries”, says Osmic and recalls the absence of long-term planning strategies related to the dynamics of population movement and economic development.
1067 marriages divorced
According to a report published by the medical scientific journal “The Lancet”, the average fertility index in 2050 globally will be around 1.8 children per woman, which is below the population renewal threshold. The research, conducted by the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) led by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), compares with United Nations (UN)projections from 2022 which say that the average number of children per woman in 2050 will be around 2.1 and 1.8 in 2100.
When it comes to the number of marriages in BiH, they also follow the birth rate trend, and are in decline. During the first six months of 2024, 6,393 marriages were concluded in BiH, which shows a decrease of 1.10 percent compared to the same period in 2023. During the first six months of 2024, 1,067 marriages were divorced, which represents a decrease of 6.24 percent compared to the same period in 2023.
