According to experts’ estimates, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) has lost more than a third of its population from 1991 to the end of 2024, a decline that is the most drastic among all European countries. Negative natural growth, an aging population, postponed parenthood, and mass emigration threaten to seriously endanger economic and social development, while current measures and strategies, experts warn, are neither sufficient nor adequate to reverse these trends.
From conversations with demographic experts from both BiH entities, Professor of Demography and demographic expert Stevo Pasalic, and analyst of demographic trends Adnan Fehratbegovic, it is clear that the demographic situation is alarming, and projections indicate even greater challenges if current trends continue.
Before the war, BiH had 4.377.033 inhabitants, reaching its demographic peak. Slightly more than two decades later, the 2013 census showed that 3.531.159 people lived in the country, while estimates for 2024 indicate only 2.865.656 inhabitants. That is a decrease of almost 35 percent compared to the pre-war period.
Experts warn that it is difficult to accurately predict the number of inhabitants, as no new census has been conducted in BiH since 2013. Because of that, they note that all current data on population numbers are only estimates, not official figures.
According to Pasalic, these estimates are obtained using a methodologically based demographic calculation known as the “balance equation,” which takes into account the number of births, deaths, and migration of the population.
Thus, the population in the Federation of BiH (FBiH) dropped to 1.802.376 in 2024 compared to 2.731.019 in 1991, while in the Brcko District, during the same period, it decreased from 87.627 to 68.173 inhabitants.
The average age in BiH is around 43 years
The number of inhabitants, as demographic analyst Adnan Fehratbegovic says, can also be indirectly estimated based on “vital statistics,” that is, the number of newborns, which is known, and by taking into account the ratio of population to newborns in countries in the region that have similar social and economic conditions.
In an interview, he emphasizes that the age structure of the population is more important than the total number of inhabitants, as it is crucial for projections but also for overall trends in areas such as the labor force, number of students, and pensioners.
“According to the 1991 census, the average age of the population of BiH was 30 years, while according to the 2013 census, in the FBiH it was 39, and in Republika Srpska (RS), around 40 years. Considering the enormous negative migration balance of more than 300.000 people in the past ten years, we can say that the average age in BiH is now around 43 years,” says Fehratbegovic.
When it comes to projections of the number and age structure of the population, the demographic picture in FBiH, according to the Federal Institute of Statistics for the period 2019-2070, as the analyst points out, looks rather bleak.
“By 2050, in the FBiH, out of an estimated 1.522.418 inhabitants, as many as 37 percent could be people older than 65. At the same time, the share of the working-age population from 15 to 64 years could fall from about 1.530.000 people in 2019 to only 797.000 in 2050, that is, from 70 to only 52 percent,” explains Fehratbegovic.
He adds that the situation is similar in RS and even worse, due to the higher average age of the population.
Fehratbegovic warns that the rapid aging of the population, combined with depopulation, will represent an enormous challenge for BiH.
“Such trends will seriously endanger the functioning of the state, from pension funds and labor shortages to enormous pressure on financing healthcare and education systems and building infrastructure,” he emphasizes.
According to data from the Federal Institute of Statistics, while the number of working-age citizens who, through their contributions, maintain pension funds and finance key public systems could be halved, the population older than 65 will increase from 335.000 in 2019 to 564.000 in 2050.
“We can freely say that the demographic problem is the hardest and most serious challenge BiH faces in its recent history,” stresses the demographic expert.
When it comes to policies and measures that should address all these challenges, Fehratbegovic openly admits that the situation is not encouraging.
“Unfortunately, I am nowhere near satisfied with what is currently being done. The main problem is that consultations with experts have been lacking,” he emphasizes.
As an example, he mentions a scientific conference organized in 2023 at the Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics in Sarajevo, which, he says, was not attended by anyone from the executive government.
“All or at least most of the so-called measures being adopted are actually ad hoc moves, often populist in character, without adequate professional or scientific grounding,” Fehratbegovic believes.
He therefore emphasizes that it is urgently necessary to include the professional public in the creation of demographic and development policy.
“The mentioned scientific conference offered exactly that – the greatest experts and scientists from the country and region are the address to turn to,” he says.
He also emphasizes that it is necessary to do everything so that young people want to stay in BiH and build their future.
“That means stabilizing political circumstances, reforming the education and health system, and creating conditions for the arrival of foreign investments, which would improve business opportunities and increase the number of jobs. Infrastructure development is also important because foreign investors do not want to operate in a country where the transport of goods and services takes forever. In addition, depoliticization of the public sector is necessary – that is, removing political parties from managing public enterprises,” concludes Fehratbegovic.
RS lost 36 percent of its population from 1991 to 2024
A concerning demographic picture is also present in RS.
In an interview, Professor of Demography and demographic expert Stevo Pasalic estimates that this BiH entity has lost as much as 36 percent of its population from 1991 to 2024, that is, from 1.558.387 to 995.107 inhabitants.
He notes that official data from the RS Institute of Statistics show 1.110.496 inhabitants, but that the official statistics do not include external migration, which in BiH, as well as in regional countries, is not systematically recorded.
When it comes to long-term demographic projections, Professor Pasalic stresses that caution is needed, as forecasts in this area are often unreliable due to certain cyclical population movements, and therefore, some changes are possible.
If, however, current trends were to continue without major deviations, with negative natural growth and constant population emigration, he estimates it is realistic to expect that RS could lose another 250.000-300.000 people by 2050.
“That means that RS could have just over 600.000 inhabitants by mid-century,” says Pasalic, adding that such projections should still be taken with caution.
Commenting on the negative natural growth, he points out that in RS, it has been continuously negative since 2002, with certain fluctuations. After the 2013 census, this BiH entity lost 64.995 inhabitants due to negative natural growth.
“It is quite certain that this trend will continue,” warns Pasalic.
Speaking about birth rates and changes in women’s reproductive habits in RS, the demography professor points to alarming data.
“Now the ‘average childbearing age’ in RS is 33.8 years, which is far above the average age in the 1990s, when that threshold was about 27 years. Moreover, over the past 30 years, the number of children per woman has dropped to about 0.5,” says Pasalic.
For RSto have conditions for simple reproduction, the annual number of newborn children should be close to 20.000, which, he says, is unattainable under existing demographic conditions.
The demographic expert also emphasizes that one quarter of women in RS aged 35 have no children and that these are mostly women who live in urban areas and have higher education.
“Postponed childbirth, late marriages, and increasingly long waits to start families are major causes of the low fertility that RS faces today,” says Pasalic.
He also warns of additional problems.
“In one generation of women aged 30-35, they still have no children, even though they are still in their fertile period. However, it can be assumed that a decline in physiological fertility, secondary infertility, a higher psychological cost of marriage, and childbirth at an older age are already present, meaning they will no longer be able to have the desired number of children. Postponing childbirth to later in life also carries numerous risks for the course and outcome of pregnancy,” he explains.
Statistics further confirm the trend of postponed parenthood in RS.
“More than 80 percent of women aged 20-24 have no children, even though they are at their most fertile – 93 percent of them. In the 25-29 age group, about two-thirds of women are childless, and about one-third of women aged 30-34 have no offspring,” says Pasalic.
He notes that a similar situation is recorded across BiH. In 1990, 67.000 children were born, while now that number is about 25.000.
Pasalic also points out that migration causes the greatest demographic losses throughout BiH, including RS.
“RS has been left by 110.240 people over the past ten years. BiH is historically an emigration country, and people will continue leaving until the development of our region approaches that of, for example, European Union (EU) countries. It is evident that the emigration process will continue, perhaps with varying intensity, depending on our economic and other developments,” he stresses.
The interlocutor noted that there are no simple or quick solutions to demographic problems, and that the current measures being implemented are neither systemic enough nor sustainable in the long term.
“There are no population policy measures that bring magical solutions. The measures we have today mostly contain elements of social policy, which means we still do not have a clearly defined population policy. Around the world, the biggest effects of such policies amount to at most ten percent. The weakest results come from financial benefits, which currently dominate our pro-natality measures,” says Pasalic.
He adds that this problem can no longer be solved only with demographic, but also with broader “non-demographic” measures, primarily economic ones.
He also provides an example showing how difficult it is to achieve visible economic effects through increased birth rates.
“If the number of children born in one year increased by 10 percent, that could affect GDP growth by about 0.69 percent. However, it is difficult to achieve such a result. In RS, that would mean the number of births would have to rise from the current 9.227 to just over 10.000 babies, to increase GDP by 0.69 percent in the following year – a demanding goal,” explains Pasalic.
He warns that, although there are numerous strategic documents dealing with demographic issues, their implementation in practice is almost nonexistent.
“We have numerous strategies, but they are mostly ‘a dead letter on paper.’ The situation is similar throughout BiH, and we pointed this out a year ago at the Academy of Sciences and Arts of BiH. Even when those strategies include demographic issues, they are most often very superficially and imprecisely defined,” says Pasalic.
He emphasizes that the population is the key driver of development and that the most effective demographic measures are actually based on economic growth.
“The best measures are economic development and employment, especially of young people and married couples, with the goal that every job be secure and well paid. Education and the quality of the labor force are also of great importance, as an educated population brings greater productivity and quality. Quantity can at least partially be compensated by quality,” concludes Pasalic, adding that “human capital is crucial for the development and survival of every society.”
Demographic problems are not unique to BiH. Similar trends are recorded in the region – Serbia, Croatia, and North Macedonia have for years been facing declining birth rates, youth emigration, and rapid population aging.
As interlocutors point out, the solution does not lie only in financial benefits, but in creating a society in which young people want to stay, start families, and build their future. That means stability, security, employment, efficient institutions, and, above all, a long-term strategy.
