Fertility rates in almost every country will be too low to support their population by the end of this century. By 2100, the population in 198 out of 204 countries will decrease, and most births will take place in poor countries, according to a study published in the Lancet.
Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to have one in two children born in 2100, with only Somalia, Tonga, Niger, Chad, Samoa, and Tajikistan able to maintain their populations, according to a study by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) on University of Washington.
”The implications are huge. These future trends in fertility rates and live births will completely reconfigure the global economy and the international balance of power and will require the reorganization of societies. Global recognition of the challenges around migration and global aid networks will be even more critical when there is fierce competition for migrants to sustain economic growth and as the baby boom in sub-Saharan Africa continues apace,” said Natalia V Bhattacharjee, co-director and lead research scientist at IHME.
The demographic shift will lead to a “baby boom” and “baby bust” divide, say the study’s authors, with richer countries struggling to sustain economic growth and poorer ones grappling with the challenge of supporting their growing populations.
”A major challenge for sub-Saharan Africa’s most fertile countries is managing the risks associated with rising population growth or the risk of a potential humanitarian disaster. The huge shift in birth rates underscores the need to prioritize this region in efforts to mitigate the effects of climate change, improve health infrastructure and continue to reduce child mortality rates, along with actions to eliminate extreme poverty and ensure women’s reproductive rights, family planning and education for girls are the top priorities of every government,” said Austin E Schumacher, co-host.
The study based its findings on surveys, census data and other sources of information collected between 1950 and 2021 as part of the Global Burden of Disease, Injury and Risk Factors, a multi-decade collaboration involving more than 8,000 scientists from more than 150 countries, Klix.ba reports.
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