Over the past few years, Milorad Dodik has been networking intensively with people from Donald Trump’s circle. The lifting of US sanctions and meetings with influential Republicans were a confirmation of this policy’s success. Now, after the Democrats’ victory in the midterm elections and new accusations about the affairs of Trump’s associates, the question is what would remain of those alliances if Congress requests contracts, correspondence, and payment records.
Susie Wiles, Trump’s chief of staff, who welcomed Željka Cvijanović in September, is stepping down from that position. Her daughter, Katke, is a partner at the Continental Strategy company, which has a contract to represent Republika Srpska. At the same time, a former administration advisor clearly claims that the junior Wiles’ clients had received preferential treatment at the White House.
These accusations were challenged. It has not been established that Dodik’s contacts were illegal, or that lobbying by Republika Srpska caused shifts in Washington. But what was recently an opportunity for boasting for Dodik could now become something his American acquaintances would rather not talk about.
“Pay Susie’s Daughter”
Calley Means, a former advisor close to the Health and Human Services Secretary, Robert F.Kennedy Jr., accused Susie Wiles in an interview with Joe Rogan of prioritizing fundraising for the elections over healthcare reforms.
According to a report by The New York Times, he claimed that companies that hired her daughter, Katie, received high priority.
“If you represent special interests and want to achieve something, the secret is out. Pay Susie’s daughter,” Means said, adding that there were open discussions about the clients.
According to the Financial Times, a spokeswoman for Susie Wiles rejected Means’ allegations as defamatory and untrue.
The connection here with BiH is very concrete. Continental has a contract to represent Republika Srpska for a monthly fee of 35,000 dollars. As N1 has previously reported, the Financial Times informed that the meeting between Cvijanović and Susie Wiles on September 21 was requested by Alex Garcia, the company’s partner.
Continental has previously stated that Katie Wiles does not represent Republika Srpska and that she traveled to the entity for another American client. The White House stated that Susie Wiles does not discuss business matters with her daughters.
Stephen Miller will replace Wiles as a chief of staff on November 9. She remains in Trump’s political organization, so it would be early to conclude that Dodik lost access to her circle. However, she will no longer hold the position she did when she received Cvijanović.
What Can Be Heard on the Audio?
In an article on Narrative, journalist Zev Shalev also analysed an audio recording he attributed to Katie Wiles.
“I’m counting on you to protect me,” can be heard in the excerpt. He then requested that a draft document not be forwarded before metadata is removed, because someone will look for who edited it.
Narrative reports source claims that the document was Dodik’s presidential speech. Dodik is not mentioned in a cited excerpt. Therefore, it cannot be concluded which draft is in question based on this conversation.
Emir Suljagić also reacted to Shalev’s publication. Suljagić wrote on the X network that Dodik could become the first citizen of BiH “with his own investigative committee in the US Congress.”
“This is now a global scandal,” Suljagić assessed.
Such a committee has not been announced. Suljagić’s comment shows the expectations that the new publications already cause in BiH.
Rubio Demands Discipline
In the meantime, Reuters reported that Marco Rubio is tightening control over the State Department. According to the agency’s sources, he warned the senior officials against conflicts of interest and stated that important decisions must receive approval from him or his deputy, Christopher Landau.
The meeting was held before the midterm elections.
In a commentary on X, Jasmin Mujanović sees a broader shift. According to his interpretation, the reports on lobbyist networks have reached the highest circles of Washington and increased the already existing dissatisfaction with certain individuals.
Mujanović also warns that the Balkans is not a major topic for the White House or the State Department. However, he believes that developments could bring the return of sanctions to the authorities in Banja Luka closer, and that the new Congress will play an important role in that.
What Can Congress Do?
Interviewees in today’s analysis by Deutsche Welle also spoke about the potential review of RS lobbying.
Kurt Baussuener, a senior associate at the Democratization Policy Council, reminds that Trump retains broad authority in foreign policy. The Democratic majority will not change the US attitude towards BiH in itself.
“But the context changes, with a possibility of emergence of a wide range of investigations on the intertwining of personal business interests and ideological affinities in US Foreign Policy,” Baussuener said to DW.
He especially singled out the connection of Dodik’s circle with the right wing through the story on “civilizational alliance.”
“I expect hearings and subpoenas regarding the ‘civilizational alliance’ in relations with Europe. Dodik and the crew – and their paid associates – played that card heavily.”
This is not yet an announcement of an investigation. If hearings do take place, however, contracts and communication between clients, intermediaries, and officials could become more important than public statements about friendship.
Who Would Stand By Dodik?
This is also a great risk of Dodik’s calculation. He pays too much significance to the US contacts. He has no reason to believe that all those people attach the same importance to him.
For the authorities of Republika Srpska, hiring people close to Trump presented an important political investment. However, the interests of the commissioners and the lobbyists do not always have to be the same. As long as cooperation yields results, this doesn’t have to be a problem. If an agreement becomes a subject of investigation, every party will have a personal interest in explaining what it has done, why, and for whose benefit.
It is possible that American intermediaries would then insist precisely on the limited scope of their engagement: they provided contracted services, did not make decisions, and did not determine the administration’s policy.
This is not proof that they would abandon him. It is, however, a reason to question what the belief in their defense is based upon.
Neven Anđelić, a professor of international relations, tells DW that Trump could change his attitude toward Dodik if it suits him.
“Trump, under the new circumstances, following the Democrats’ victory, can drop Milorad Dodik, leave it to Europeans to choose the new High Representative, but he will request something from Europe in return,” Anđelić said.
“Cardinal Mistake”
For DW, Mujanović assessed the lifting of sanctions as a tactical victory for Banja Luka, but warned about a possible long-term price.
“If Dodik finds himself in the crosshairs of the Democrats and the next administration, whether Democratic or Republican, that could become a cardinal mistake of the regime in Banja Luka,” he said.
“Excessive and aggressive interference in internal American politics is extremely risky, and it is only a matter of time before sanctions return.”, N1 writes.
