The economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs was “significantly smaller” than expected last year, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said as it raised its growth forecast for 2026.
The US Supreme Court struck down much of Trump’s tariff policy last week, prompting the US president to impose a new 10 percent tariff under another law, which he has promised to raise to 15 percent.
However, for the countries where the EBRD operates, these events will bring only “very limited” changes, chief economist Beata Javorcik told AFP.
The EBRD was founded in 1991 to help former Soviet bloc countries embrace market economies, before expanding its operations to the Middle East, parts of Africa, according to Euractiv.
“The impact of US tariffs on our countries of operation was limited, much smaller than expected,” Javorcik said.
In its latest report published on Thursday, the EBRD predicted that growth would accelerate to 3.6 percent this year and rise further to 3.7 percent in 2027.
“Some countries could potentially benefit from lower tariffs, such as Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Moldova or Tunisia, but the overall picture remains unchanged,” added Javorcik.
She warned that “we haven’t felt the full impact of the tariffs yet,” since much of the 2025 exports reached US markets before the measures took effect.
The EBRD also noted that the “artificial intelligence boom” has increased US imports of technology-related products.
This could benefit countries in Central Europe, the Baltics, Bulgaria and Romania that export such products, said Javorcik.
