European leaders do not believe that Vladimir Putin is sincere when he speaks about a peace agreement, so their strategy is to accommodate and praise Donald Trump until he himself comes to the same conclusion and realizes that he will have to be tougher toward the Kremlin.
The European side considers this a strategy in which they can only gain. They would be happy to be proven wrong if the United States (U.S.) president manages to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine with significant security guarantees, but the main plan of the game is actually to expose the bluff of the Russian leader and lobby for tougher sanctions.
French President Emmanuel Macron, who made the greatest efforts to prevent the war in Ukraine through diplomatic dialogue with Putin, is now the loudest in claiming that the Russian president is not serious about peace and that he remains committed to his goal of destroying an independent, democratic Ukraine.
“Do I think that President Putin wants peace? The answer is no. If you want my deepest conviction: No. Do I think that President Trump wants peace? Yes,” Macron said before leaving for Washington, where he joined the negotiations on Monday. “I don’t think that President Putin wants peace. I think he wants the capitulation of Ukraine. That is what he proposed.”
In fact, far from any concessions for a peace agreement, Putin is simply demanding more territory from Kyiv, including key Ukrainian defense lines that would allow him to penetrate deeper into the country. He also categorically rejects the presence of NATO forces as a guarantee for Ukraine’s security after the war, which is a key condition for Kyiv.
As preparations are now underway for a possible summit between Russia and Ukraine, leaders from across Europe held a series of urgent talks on Tuesday to assess their response and exchange information from the White House negotiations the day before.
European consensus and optimism
According to five diplomats, who were guaranteed anonymity in order to be able to speak about sensitive conversations, presidents, prime ministers, and ambassadors largely agreed with Macron. They expressed deep skepticism that the Kremlin would negotiate in good faith, but also optimism that Washington would punish Russia if it turned out that Putin was the biggest obstacle to peace.
“It is clear that if we end up in a situation where Putin shows that he does not want to end the war, that will force Trump into action and strengthen the arguments for sanctions,” said a diplomat of a country that participated in the virtual session of the European Council on Tuesday.
Europeans see U.S. pressure through sanctions as a key part of the diplomatic process, and many argue that Putin was forced into a meeting with Trump in Alaska only after Washington imposed high tariffs on India due to its oil purchases, the main source of Russian revenue. The dramatic next step would be the escalation of similar sanctions to suffocate Russia’s crucial trade with China.
Another diplomat confirmed that the allies are content to support the U.S. initiative for mediation in a ceasefire, not because they necessarily believe it will succeed, but “because it will be a clear test of Russian intentions.” A third added that the security guarantees being developed would help Ukraine “negotiate from a position of strength,” while sanctions would ensure that “we have leverage over Putin.”
Leaders such as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, French President Emmanuel Macron, United Kingdom (UK) Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni traveled to Washington on Monday to support Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the meeting with Trump. This happened just a few days after the U.S. leader hosted Putin at negotiations in Alaska and claimed that progress had been made on “many points.”
“This is a constant balancing act around Trump for everyone – including Putin,” said Fiona Hill, former adviser to the Republican during his first term and now a fellow at the Brookings Institution.
According to her, the best possible outcome of the summit in Alaska was “something that could be worked with, and it seems that there was, even though it looked very bad in public.”
Trump is realizing
Western partners showered Trump with praise, thanked him for organizing the talks, and expressed genuine relief after he gave significant assurances that the U.S. would play a role in security guarantees for Ukraine as part of a peace agreement. Still, behind closed doors, they are more focused on pushing for new, tough economic restrictions when and if Moscow refuses to halt the invasion.
“Everyone is acting as if everything is normal,” said a fourth European Union (EU) diplomat. “But we do not know what Putin’s ultimate goal is. What will motivate him to make any concession? I don’t know.”
The pressure to talk about peace is becoming a problem for the Russian leader.
The Kremlin reacted to the next round of diplomacy by avoiding an answer. Stalling, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Moscow does not reject talks with Ukraine, but insisted that any summit must be prepared “step by step, gradually, starting at the expert level and then through all the necessary phases.” Putin even, quite unproductively, proposed a summit in Russia – an idea that was immediately rejected.
A German official said that this wavering is becoming a serious test of Russian intentions.
“Russia agreed to host or participate in a bilateral summit with Zelenskyy. In the meantime, according to the media, it seems that the Russian side is now interpreting that differently,” said the official.
On the European side, diplomacy is now moving at an accelerated pace. The EU held an extraordinary meeting of ambassadors until 2 a.m. on Tuesday, ahead of the leaders’ talks and a separate video call with an informal “coalition of the willing,” which included non-EU countries such as Turkey and Canada. This is happening just ahead of a meeting of military chiefs expected this week in Washington to discuss concrete security guarantees for Ukraine.
EU defense and foreign ministers will also meet informally next week as expectations grow that a concrete peace proposal could be ready to present to Zelenskyy and Putin within a week.
Trump has hinted that the U.S. Air Force could be used in Ukraine, while European countries could deploy troops to protect the country – all options that run counter to Russian ambitions to seize more territory.
However, although Western countries increasingly believe that they can cooperate with Trump and maintain a united front, they have been forced to adjust their red lines to him. After the talks in Washington, the EU on Monday softened its demand that Russia accept a ceasefire before the start of negotiations.
“There was hope that Trump might change his mind on the ceasefire issue. That did not happen. But overall, it was still a good step toward peace,” said a fifth diplomat, expressing concern about differences in positions.
Most importantly, however, is that Trump himself is now publicly acknowledging that it is possible Putin is not negotiating in good faith.
“We will find out about President Putin in the next few weeks. It is possible that he does not want to make a deal. I hope that President Putin will be good, and if he is not, that will be a difficult situation,” said the U.S. president, Klix.ba writes.
