Ursula von der Leyen’s political fate will be decided today, when the European Parliament will vote to elect or reject her for another five-year term as president of the European Commission, the EU’s powerful executive body.
The vote will determine whether there is continuity in the European Union’s key institution at a time of external and internal challenges – including growing support for far-right and Eurosceptic political parties across the European bloc.
With no clear alternative candidate, von der Leyen’s supporters presented the vote as a choice between stability and chaos, as its rejection would create political gridlock.
“It would be seen as rolling out the carpet for the far right,” said Sean Kelly, European representative from the center-right group of the European People’s Party von der Leyen, about the possibility of the parliament rejecting it.
Von der Leyen, 65, will outline her plans for a second term in a speech, building on her first term in which she oversaw the world’s largest package of climate change policies, worth 800 billion euros, the EU’s response to the coronavirus pandemic and 14 rounds of sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.
Even among critics, there is little desire to create a leadership vacuum in Europe in the months ahead of the US presidential election in November, where a victory by Republican Donald Trump could shake the West’s unity over support for Ukraine.
Von der Leyen, the mother of seven children and the first woman to head the Commission, needs the support of at least 361 representatives in the 720-member European Parliament.
The three centrist groups expected to support it have a total of 401 representatives. It is expected, however, that some will defect and oppose her in a secret ballot.
In order to easily pass the election, she may need the support of parts of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) grouping of 78 members or 53 representatives of the Greens.
“We need that message to build on the current Green Deal and that there is no giving up,” said Bas Eickhout, co-chairman of the Green group, about the conditions for Von der Leyen’s support.
The German politician’s speech will reveal what concessions the deputies “squeezed” out of her during weeks of intense negotiations. Neither the Greens nor the ECR have yet confirmed that they will support it.
ECR representative Dominik Tarcinski said that 18 Polish members of the group will vote against.
“She made decisions that are terrible for the European Union: migration, the Green Agreement, trade with China,” he told Reuters.
EU MPs vote at 1pm local time in Strasbourg.
If von der Leyen fails, EU leaders will have a month to propose another candidate – likely to delay the launch of the new European Commission, which is responsible for proposing new EU policies until 2025, Reuters reports.
