David Kanin, a former senior analyst at the United States (U.S.)Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), who was an employee of the inter-agency working group for the Balkans during the wars of the 1990s, stated that Milorad Dodik would continue to pursue the current policy as much as he could.
”Kanin noted that Dodik simply wants to put his finger in the eyes of the West whenever he has the opportunity, for his political reasons because he wants the entity to move as far as possible from “Dayton Bosnia” while at the same time claiming to act in accordance with Dayton, ” Radio Free Europe (RFE) announced.
“We’ll see if he moves towards secession or it can be less than that. We’ll see. But I believe he crosses the line when it comes to the security zone. All the things he has done so far could be managed, and they were less than sovereign,” Kanin said.
Further, he added that the creation of an army could be a turning point.
“But I think that when he sets out to create an army, a military force that he can use, independently of another military force, not only as a requirement for internal security but as a means of police and army to secede his entity in a serious way, then Ithink he crosses the line,” Kanin stressed.
He emphasized that the current situation is not sustainable and that Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) will not function in these circumstances.
“It was not useful from the beginning and it won’t be in the future. The question that arises is what will lead to a new conflict. We saw in the region going back to 1878. Sorry, but if we look at history, the pattern in the region is clear. Safety covers that are imposed externally by the west function as much as they work. And when they don’t work, the region goes back to the conflict. We’ve seen that many times. What prevents Dodik has little to do with what the Americans are doing and the European Union (EU), but the next step. Let’s say Republika Srpska (RS) secedes. Will it join Serbia? Will it remain independent, which actually means dependent on Serbia and Russia?” Kanin explained.
He added that Dodik is not sure how all this will affect the economy, which means he cannot predict the consequences of such a move.
According to him, the international community has failed in its approach to BiH.
E.Dz.
Source: Klix.ba
