Former U.S. Ambassador to Bosnia and Herzegovina Michael Murphy posted a detailed analysis of the recently held elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina on the social media platform X.
In his post, Murphy broke down the political actors item by item into winners and losers, reflecting on election technologies, the role of the OHR, as well as drastic shifts in the foreign policies of the U.S. and the European Union.
Winners: CEC, Schmidt, Dodik, and Čović
His category begins with the category of winners, which first highlighted the election administration, the High Representative, and SDA, emphasizing that the introduction of new technologies was a key democratic step forward.
“The CEC’s performance with the introduction of the new technology was outstanding, especially given the efforts by some parties to prevent it from happening (i.e., SNSD and HDZ BiH). There were some glitches, but they were minor. Christian Schmidt made this possible by imposing election integrity reforms in March 2024, over the objections of the EU. It was the right decision. The fact that SDA and the voting public knew of the Bosniak party’s big victory on the same day votes were cast, rather than days or weeks later, was a win for democracy in BiH,” Murphy said.
Speaking about party leaders, the former ambassador stated that SNSD, HDZ BiH, and SDA achieved some major electoral victories, but he singled out Milorad Dodik as the major winner among them, openly criticizing the stance of his own country and Brussels toward the SNSD leader.
“Still, Mr. Dodik was the biggest winner among the three. Mr. Dodik’s assertion that he owes his success, in part, to the U.S. administration’s change in BiH policy is right. The administration embraced his agenda and helped him climb out of the six-foot hole he was in at the end of 2024. This and Mr. Dodik’s win created new danger to BiH’s territorial integrity. The EU may come to regret its decision to downplay the threat posed by Mr. Dodik and effort to appease him rather than help drive a stake through his heart when he had the opportunity,” Murphy believes.
The next on the list of winners according to Murphy’s assessment is HDZ BiH leader Dragan Čović. Murphy emphasized that Čović profited multiple times from new ideological guidelines from Washington, as well as from his own electoral tactics.
“It is sometimes lost in the focus on Mr. Dodik, but Mr. Covic, too, has benefited from the U.S. administration’s shift in policy. His agenda is much more compatible with a U.S. BiH policy driven principally by Christian nationalism. Mr. Covic also knows how to win elections and has for a long time – this, not Christian Schmidt, is what makes him and his party a force in Federation politics. Through his party sought to derail implementation of election integrity technology, its use gives HDZ BiH’s result greater legitimacy than they have enjoyed in the past,” Murphy emphasized.
Losers: Izetbegovic, Civic Concept and the European Path
Moving to the analysis of the losers in the election process, Murphy cited Bakir Izetbegović first. Despite the overall election success of the SDA, Murphy pointed out Izetbegović’s personal defeat in the race for the Presidency and predicted new calculations with Čović.
“SDA had a great night, but Mr. Izetbegović lost his race for the presidency for the second straight election cycle. Voters don’t like him, and that’s not a good look for a party leader. Mr. Covic will embrace Mr. Izetbegović this time – after complaining bitterly about him and jettisoning him in 2022 – because he sees an untrustworthy Mr. Izetbegovic as a better partner than an obstreperous Troika, which performed poorly, in any case. Mr. Izetbegovic may see this as a lifeline; it shouldn’t be,” Murphy considers.
Murphy singled out the civic concept in Bosnia and Herzegovina as the second major loser of these elections, reflecting on the poor result of the Democratic Front (DF), Željko Komšić’s reaction, as he stated the SDA leader’s apparent advocacy for the civic state.
“DF may find itself in government at the state and entity levels if Mr. Covic allows it, but the party fared poorly on October 4. Mr. Komsic was forthright about it, which is to his credit. He is also right that the election outcome more broadly says something about the state of ‘civic BiH.’ Mr. Izetbegovic has never been a genuine proponent of civic BiH despite his posturing over the last several years. That mask could drop completely as Mr. Izetbegovic makes the deals he has to get back into government with Mr. Dodik and Mr. Covic,” Murphy wrote.
At the end of the post, Murphy reflected on the third loser – the European perspective of Bosnia and Herzegovina. He warned of the consequences of Dodik’s anti-European campaign, as well as Čović’s policy of adaptation.
“Mr. Dodik has long opposed adoption of the reforms required to advance BiH’s EU aspirations even as he sometimes paid lip service to BIH’s EU perspective. Over the last 18 months, Mr. Dodik was extremely critical of the EU, and this election cycle he actively campaigned against it. That bodes ill for BiH’s EU perspective, assuming the EU remains serious about its own standards. The Law Court will be an early test. Mr. Dodik’s openly anti-EU posture will present challenges for Mr. Covic, who has been able to present himself as pro-European even while drafting in Mr. Dodik’s wake to water down those EU reforms he found objectionable for ethnonationalist or financial reasons,” Murphy concluded.
