According to available information, the United States (U.S.) is on the verge of military action against Iran, which could follow as early as the coming days. Although the potential targets of a U.S. attack are largely predictable, ranging from military facilities to key elements of Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, what remains completely uncertain is the outcome of such an intervention.
If a diplomatic agreement with Tehran is not reached at the last moment, and President Donald Trump decides to give the green light for a military strike, the world could face a series of scenarios carrying serious political, security, and economic consequences, not only for the Middle East but also for global stability. The media reported seven possible scenarios that could follow a U.S. attack on Iran.
1. Precision strikes and the fall of the regime: an optimistic but unlikely scenario
In the most optimistic scenario, U.S. air and naval forces would carry out limited, precision strikes targeting military bases of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the Basij paramilitary unit, sites for the launch and storage of ballistic missiles, and key segments of Iran’s nuclear program.
According to this assumption, the already weakened Iranian regime would collapse, opening the way for a transition of power and, in the long term, the establishment of genuine democracy in Iran, allowing the country to reintegrate into the international community.
However, Western experiences in Iraq and Libya show how unrealistic this scenario is. Although military interventions in those countries led to the fall of authoritarian regimes, they did not result in stable democratic systems, but rather years of violence, political chaos, and humanitarian crises. The only exception in the region in recent years is Syria, which in 2024 overthrew the regime of Bashar al-Assad through an internal revolution, without direct Western military intervention, and so far has been recording a relatively more stable recovery.
2. The regime survives but changes its policy
Another possible outcome resembles the so-called “Venezuelan model.” In this case, a strong and rapid U.S. military strike would not topple the authorities in Tehran, but would force the Islamic Republic to soften its policies.
This would mean reducing or completely halting support for militant groups across the Middle East, limiting the nuclear and ballistic programs, and adopting a milder approach toward internal protests and the opposition. Although this outcome could bring some relief to the region, it would not satisfy the large number of Iranians who have been demanding fundamental political change for decades.
Nevertheless, analysts believe that this scenario is also unlikely. Over 47 years, Iran’s leadership has demonstrated pronounced resilience and rigidity, as well as an almost complete inability or unwillingness to change its strategic course, even under strong international pressure.
3. Fall of the regime and establishment of military rule
Many experts consider this scenario the most realistic. Although the Iranian regime is deeply unpopular among large segments of the population, and each new round of protests further weakens its legitimacy, the country still has a strong security apparatus, a kind of “deep state”, whose survival depends on preserving the existing system.
Previous protests failed to overthrow the authorities primarily because there were no mass defections within the military and security structures, while the authorities were willing to use unlimited force and brutality to remain in power.
In the event of a U.S. attack and the ensuing chaos, it is possible that Iran could end up under firm military rule, composed mainly of senior IRGC officers, which would mean an even more authoritarian and militarized system of governance.
4. Iranian retaliation: attacks on U.S. bases and allies
Iran has clearly stated that it will retaliate against any U.S. attack, warning that its “finger is on the trigger.” Although Tehran lacks the capacity to directly confront the U.S. Navy and Air Force, it still possesses a significant arsenal of ballistic missiles and drones, many of which are hidden in mountains, underground tunnels, and caves.
U.S. bases in Bahrain, Qatar, and other Persian Gulf states would be potential targets, but Iran could also attack key infrastructure in countries it considers accomplices in a U.S. attack, such as Jordan.
The 2019 attack on Saudi Aramco facilities, carried out with drones and missiles and attributed to Iranian allies, showed how vulnerable Gulf states are. For this reason, U.S. allies in the region are currently extremely concerned that any military conflict could have devastating consequences precisely for them.
5. Mining the Persian Gulf and the collapse of global trade
One of the West’s long-standing fears is the possibility that Iran could deploy naval mines in the Persian Gulf, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow sea passage between Iran and Oman represents one of the world’s most important energy arteries.
Around 20 percent of the world’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and between 20 and 25 percent of total global oil and petroleum product shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz each year. Iran has repeatedly demonstrated the ability to quickly deploy naval mines, and such a move would have immediate consequences for global trade, energy prices, and the global economy.
6. Sinking a U.S. warship: a low-probability scenario with enormous consequences
One of the most dangerous, though less likely scenarios, is a direct attack on a U.S. warship. U.S. naval officers have for years warned of the possibility of so-called “swarm attacks,” in which Iran simultaneously launches a large number of drones and fast torpedo boats in order to overwhelm the defensive systems of U.S. ships.
The IRGC Navy, which has pushed aside Iran’s regular navy in the Gulf, is focused precisely on asymmetric warfare and identifying weaknesses of a technologically superior adversary – the U.S. Fifth Fleet.
The sinking of a U.S. warship and the possible capture of crew members would represent a huge humiliation for the U.S. Although considered unlikely, history shows that such incidents can occur, such as the attack on the destroyer USS Cole in 2000 or the missile strike on USS Stark in 1987, in which dozens of U.S. sailors were killed.
7. Fall of the regime and complete chaos
The darkest scenario, which particularly worries countries such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia, is the complete collapse of the state. In such an outcome, Iran could face a civil war similar to those in Syria, Yemen, or Libya.
An additional risk is the possibility of ethnic conflicts erupting, as Kurds, Baloch, and other minorities might try to secure their own autonomy in conditions of a national power vacuum. Given that Iran has around 93 million inhabitants, a state collapse would almost certainly trigger a massive humanitarian and refugee crisis.
Although many Middle Eastern countries, and especially Israel, would welcome the end of the Islamic Republic, which Tel Aviv views as an existential threat because of its nuclear program, almost no one wants the region’s most populous state to sink into complete chaos.
A war without a clear end
The greatest danger at this moment is that President Trump, after concentrating strong military capabilities near Iran’s borders, may assess that he must act in order not to lose political credibility. Such a decision could trigger a war without a clearly defined objective and exit strategy, with unpredictable and potentially catastrophic consequences for regional and global security.
