Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) and the country’s armed forces estimate that Russia views the West as a systemic enemy, is building up its military might and is preparing for a major conflict with NATO, Bild claims.
It is claimed that Putin’s empire is prepared to use military force to achieve its imperialist goals. The assessment, also reported by the Süddeutsche Zeitung, WDR and NDR, suggests that Putin will not be content with Ukraine alone. By the end of the decade, Russia will likely have created all the necessary conditions to wage a “large-scale conventional war”.
The Lithuanian Intelligence Service (VSD) believes that Russia is not yet capable of waging a large-scale conventional war against NATO in the medium term. However, limited military action against one or more NATO countries is possible.
Putin is reportedly planning to test how seriously NATO countries actually take their obligation to provide assistance under Article 5 of the NATO treaty in case of an emergency.
The BND report shows that three-quarters of Russian troops and equipment from the Baltic border regions are currently in Ukraine, and the air force and navy are on full alert. If the war in Ukraine ends, Russian units will be transferred back to the region.
Despite heavy losses and Western sanctions, Putin continues to arm himself. The Bundeswehr and BND report that the Russian military economy produces more than is needed for the war in Ukraine.
By 2026, the size of the Russian armed forces should increase to 1.5 million soldiers. According to plans for 2022, the number of personnel, weapons and military equipment of the Russian Federation on the border with NATO should increase by 30-50 percent.
It is noted that the Kremlin is increasing military spending at a dizzying pace. By 2025, they will amount to about 120 billion euros, which corresponds to more than 6 percent of GDP. Thus, Russia has almost quadrupled its military budget compared to 2021.
