Before any reforms can take place, the formation of government will be the priority in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The deadlines have begun; depending on the level of government, they range from 15 to a maximum of 30 days. In the context of the Bosnian political landscape, this timeframe has historically proven insufficient. It appears that the new administration is set to continue this tradition of delays. At this initial stage, the landscape is defined by competing interests and demands, as well as the categorization of potential allies into “desirable” and “undesirable” partners—particularly at the state level. A period of negotiation now lies ahead.
Desirable and Undesirable
Election results have been certified, and the deadlines are in effect. Negotiations are in their early stages; teams are being assembled, and plans are being defined. At the state level, demands and conditions are already being laid out, with political actors being cast as either desirable or undesirable partners.
“I believe we should form a strong pro-Bosnian bloc,” stated Bakir Izetbegović, president of the SDA.
“There will be no partnership with any structure that includes the Party for BiH (SBiH),” declared Milorad Dodik, president of the SNSD.
“No one will accept ultimatums that come at the expense of the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina,” asserted Džemal Smajić, general secretary of the SBiH.
“We are not an alternative to anyone—not even to the Party for BiH,” stated Nermin Nikšić, president of the SDP.
“Participating in government is only an option with parties that were previously in the opposition,” said Dženan Đonlagić, general secretary of the DF. “I do not have a list of banned parties,” is the message from Darijana Filipović, a newly elected member of the Presidency of BiH (HDZ BiH).
Six Parties, United Only by an Appetite for Power
Six parties, yet the only thing they share is a desire for a slice of power. Divergent visions, maximalist demands, and conflicting stances seem unlikely to be reconciled before the deadline.
“They have failed to move beyond their ‘bazaar-style’ mentality. Politics in BiH is such that everyone behaves like a huckster—much like someone trying to sell you a calf for 5,000 or 6,000 marks, thinking that’s a great deal. They continue to act this way; the only thing that might accelerate the process is pressure from Brussels,” observes Željko Raljić, a journalist and analyst.
Elvis Fejzić, a professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Sarajevo (UNSA), notes:
“Given our past experiences, I honestly don’t expect much to come of this ‘accelerated procedure’ that has been presented. Of course, a great deal depends on how quickly the Houses of Peoples—at both the state and entity levels—are formed, and whether the parties that performed well can reach an agreement on a ‘grand coalition’ at the state and entity levels of government.”
A New Government in the FBiH: With or Without the SDP?
At the Federation level, only preliminary meetings have taken place so far. The SDA, the DF, and the Party for BiH (SBiH) have made their objective clear: to form a government with the HDZ BiH, excluding the SDP. While they hold a majority in the House of Representatives, the key may lie in the House of Peoples—specifically within the Serb Caucus, where the SDP could potentially hold a majority. This means their vote could prove decisive in the formation of the new government in the Federation. The SDP leader says they do not plan to obstruct the process, but in exchange for their support, they are demanding an apology for the labels applied to them during the previous term.
“First, let’s sit down, and let them say: ‘We apologize—we called you traitors, but now we need your support to form a government,'” said Nikšić.
In the meantime, this delay suits the officials who are counting down the final days of their mandates.
“Their income and salaries are what matter to them. It is in their interest for this process to drag on as long as possible, but it is certainly not in the interest of us, the citizens,” adds Fejzić.
Who will align with whom, and under what terms? Negotiations will likely extend beyond the established deadlines, as a battle unfolds for every slice of the pie—and for four years in comfortable, well-paid positions from which they will shape the future, from the cantonal level all the way up to the state.
