In the background of the political negotiations for the formation of the government, there are increasingly intense claims that, in addition to the SDA, the SNSD is also being bypassed. How feasible is that at all?
SNSD, like SDA, is extremely dominant in its political scope. However, the SDA is in a much more difficult position because it has a strong political bloc in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH), and the government in that entity will be the political group that secures the majority in the Bosniak Caucus, and that is guaranteed by 13 delegates.
A little earlier, BiH Presidency member Zeljko Komsic (DF) stated that some representatives of the international community favor the government without the SDA. In parallel, the same degree of favoritism exists when it comes to the expulsion of the SNSD from the state level.
Milorad Dodik’s party (SNSD) is the convincing winner in Republika Srpska (RS) and will have a solid majority in that entity through legislative bodies. However, as we learn, there are serious discussions about the formation of the state government without that party, which would be filled with the positions of SDS and PDP. Specifically, the key will be who will have delegates in the state House of Peoples.
SNSD will have its three sure delegates, and if they get the fourth, they will be an unavoidable factor. However, there is a scenario that the Movement for the State coalition in the RS that supports the opposition (SDS and PDP), i.e. their delegate, which would enable an entity majority to be possible in the House of Peoples even without the SNSD. And the Movement for a State in the RS has five representatives in the National Assembly of the RS (NARS) (SDA 1, SDP 2, DF 1, and Bh Zeleni 1). So far, it is not clear how the Movement for the State will proceed, and the first announcements say that it will have its own list and seek support for its delegate. Practice shows that this will be almost impossible and will most certainly mean that the SNSD will get its fourth delegate.
The Movement for the State commented on this issue with the view that there is no difference between SNSD on the one hand and SDS and PDP on the other, at least when it comes to relations with the state.
However, foreigners who closely monitor all processes believe that the expulsion of the SNSD from the state government could relax the passage of some laws and processes in general, such as the adoption of declarations related to BiH’s foreign policy in the context of the war in Ukraine, condemnation of Russia, and the like. In addition, the aim is to replace the SNSD cadres with those of the PDP, SDS, and possibly Nebojsa Vukanovic.
All this is technically and theoretically possible, but to a great extent depends on the position of HDZ, which has been building strong relations with SNSD for years. Of course, it would not be the first time for Dragan Covic to turn his back on Dodik, and the new moment is that the HDZ received changes to the electoral law and the FBiH Constitution that suit them better.
Everything will be affected by the extremely powerful position of SNSD in the RS, where SDS and PDP have no strength, and their activity in government at the state level would be very difficult.