Last October, after a Hamas attack, the Israeli military issued evacuation orders for many of Gaza’s 2.3 million residents, telling them to head south for their own safety.
Multiple evacuation orders followed, and today more than 1.5 million Palestinians are estimated to have taken refuge in and around the southern city of Rafah, greatly increasing its pre-war population of 280,000.
Many of those now in Rafah, which is on Gaza’s southern border with Egypt, are living in temporary accommodation. Satellite images from Planet Labs, dated October 13th and January 14th, show a significant increase in tents across the city.
Analysis of satellite data by Corey Scher of New York University and Jamon Van Den Hoek of Oregon State University reveals that these people have nowhere to return or go in Gaza.
As of February 2nd, it was estimated that between 53% and 65% of all buildings in the Gaza Strip were likely damaged or destroyed. Footage released by The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) on X on Thursday shows some of the damaged areas in and around Gaza City.
The extent of damage varies from north to south. While between 73% and 84% of buildings in Gaza City and 69-81% of buildings in northern Gaza were likely damaged or destroyed, the rate was lower in the southern city of Khan Younis with 50-63% destroyed. This number is likely to be higher now that Khan Younis has recently been the focus of Israeli operations.
An estimated 29 to 40% of buildings in Rafah were destroyed by February 2nd, reinforcing the sense that it is the last place of relative safety in the Palestinian territory.
But that could change if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu goes ahead with his announced intention and ground operations.
In the event of a ground assault on Rafah without a credible civilian evacuation plan, it is unclear where Palestinians who have fled there, many of whom have been displaced multiple times since October, could go.
There are already reports of civilian casualties in Rafah. Video from February 12th shows Israeli strikes before dawn and the destroyed buildings and craters left behind.
Israel is facing increasing pressure from foreign governments and aid agencies not to attack Rafah.
On Monday, the United States (U.S.) President Joe Biden joined international calls against the offensive in the city, saying Israel should not proceed with such an attack “without a credible plan to protect and support the more than a million people who have taken refuge there”.
Australia, Canada and New Zealand warned Israel on Thursday not to “go down that road”, issuing a joint statement saying “an expanded military operation would be devastating” because “civilians simply have nowhere else to go”.
Israel, however, insists that it must break through to Rafah, eliminate Hamas hideouts and achieve “total victory.”, The Guardian writes.
Photo: Rafah in October 2023, left, and last month. Composite: Planet Labs/AFP/Getty Images
