Tehran has secretly warned the United States (U.S.) allies in the Middle East of the consequences if their territories or airspace are used to attack Iran. Those threats prompted wealthy Arab states to tell the U.S. they would not participate in the attack.
Israel has threatened Tehran with severe retaliation after Iran fired about 180 ballistic missiles at Israel earlier this month, and some Israeli officials and analysts are calling for devastating strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities or oil infrastructure. In that case, Iran warned through secret channels that it would respond with devastating strikes on Israeli civilian infrastructure and would retaliate against any Arab state that facilitated the attack, Arab officials said in a Wall Street Journal (WSJ) report.
Arab officials, according to the WSJ, said countries targeted by Iran through diplomatic channels include Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Qatar – all countries that host U.S. troops. Those countries have informed the Joe Biden administration that they do not want their military infrastructure or airspace to be used by the U.S. or Israel for any offensive operations against Iran, the officials said.
Alliance on the test
The growing conflict in the Middle East is testing the alliance between Israel and Arab states opposed to Iran’s military stance in the region. The U.S. is the backbone of this alliance and hopes that in the future it could create a kind of Middle Eastern NATO, aimed at opposing Iran. Arab states, including Jordan, helped shoot down Iranian missiles launched at Israel in April, but supporting a direct Israeli attack on Iran may be a step too far.
U.S. defense officials have acknowledged that some regional partners have informed the Pentagon that they do not want Israeli warplanes flying over their territories or U.S. forces launching offensive operations from or over their airspace. Arab countries have said that U.S. forces will only be allowed to conduct self-defense operations.
The demands of the Arab countries are informal for now, said a U.S. defense official. Since the start of the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza last year, Arab countries have repeatedly added and removed restrictions on U.S. operations, defense officials say. But these countries are now much more determined in their demands because the war has spread to the conflicts between Israel and Iran.
Israeli retaliation is awaited
U.S. President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday discussed expected Israeli military retaliation against Iran, in their first conversation since August 21st. U.S. officials said they did not yet have information on the timing of the attack or on the targets Israel might target. Israel’s security cabinet was meeting yesterday, and members were suppposed to be briefed on options for responding to an Iranian attack, an Israeli official said.
Israel likely has other routes to send warplanes to attack Iran, including over Syria, where its air force has freedom of movement, and Iraq, where air defenses are no match for Israel’s stealth technology.
However, any restrictions on the movement of the U.S. military in the region could make it difficult to protect or supply its resources, such as aircraft carriers operating in the Red Sea.
Earlier this month, Iran’s mission to the United Nations (UN)publicly warned that any country providing aid to an Israeli attack would also be considered complicit and a legitimate target, but did not provide further details.
These threatening messages underscore the risks to the U.S. if the conflict between Israel and Iran spirals out of control. U.S.officials said they are strengthening their military presence in the region, including increasing the number of warplanes deployed in the Middle East and keeping the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier battle group in the region.
