The United States (U.S.) and the European Union (EU) need to ensure that Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) remains united after the 2022 elections. That, among other things, is written in thepessimistic analysis of the International Crisis Group. Numerous Western NGOs, the public, and the media, warn of the growing possibility of conflict unless an agreement is reached amongBiH political leaders. Much is expected from the increasing number of visits by international officials. However, are these expectations realistic?
The people of BiH are slowly realizing that, when the world’s attention is focused far from the Balkans, their acute political crisis no longer raises an alarm in Washington, New York, or Brussels. Even though many citizens and politicians still thinkthat some foreign power will act decisively, there is not enough evidence for that. It is part of the analysis of the International Crisis Group.
“Without serious efforts to prevent the secessionism of Serb representatives and the electoral boycott of Croat representatives, Bosnia could disintegrate in the next 18 months, potentially leaving the possibility of secession of Republika Srpska (RS), which probably could not be internationally recognized, as well as remnants of the Federation paralyzed by Bosniak-Croat conflicts,” it was noted by the International Crisis Group.
BiH is described in a worrying tone in foreign media reports and analyzes. Many visits by international officials in the last month and a half have ended with an identical sentence – “We are here to mediate, but the agreement is up to BiH politicians.” But, although they are not mentioned as a likely option, apparently, sanctions are on the table.
“All the sanctions that will be taken are related to crime and corruption that reaches the top of BiH. And of course, when these channels start to be interrupted, when the financial flows of money to the top of the political elites are interrupted, of course, they will try in all possible ways. to cause an incident, a conflict that can escalate into very serious problems within the country, ” told Drasko Acimovic, the former BiH ambassador to Brussels.
“I sincerely hope that both the ruling parties and the opposition parties will stop using this situation for their own promotion and positioning before the elections, which may not take place anymore, but that they will take this historical moment in which we all find ourselves very seriously and do everything that is needed so that civilized solutions for our problems can befound,” explained Srecko Latal, Balkan Investigative Reporting Network (BIRN)‘s regional editor.
Even if they do not sit at the same table, it would not be the first time that the offer of foreigners, which is not rejected, comes suddenly, as analysts state.
“The ruling political parties do not want that. They have shown countless times that they do not want to unblock these processes. In such circumstances, although it is not popular, we really cannot start processes without the involvement of the international community. The international community in BiH is in some way responsible for these blockades as well, and that is why I expect it to be engaged, “ emphasized Alija Kozljak, head of the Department of International Relations at Burch University.
When it comes to the citizens of BiH, they do not need foreigners or international reports to point out that they have problems. Unfortunately, they feel it on their skin – surviving every first of the month. And that is exactly what domestic political representatives should turn to, analysts conclude.
E.Dz.
Source: BHRT
